Defense autonomy · long only
Defense is shifting to software-defined autonomous mass
Value is moving from exquisite manned platforms to autonomy stacks, attritable systems produced in volume, and the vertically integrated companies that build and program their own hardware.
Return since inception
From 2026-04-15
Versus S&P 500
Percentage points
Positions
Long only
Names followed
47 reviewed
The book
Full portfolio →| Holding | Weight | Conviction | Why it is held |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY
Mercury Systems |
11.0% | 72 | Mercury Systems builds the rugged computing boards that process radar and sensor data inside hundreds of military programs. After years of production problems its order book, margins and cash flow have all turned up together, with full year results due in mid August. |
| KTOS
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions |
9.7% | 91 | Kratos builds jet powered drones cheap enough for the military to treat as expendable, and the Marine Corps has now selected its Valkyrie aircraft through a partnership with Northrop Grumman. Revenue grew 30 percent last quarter and the 2027 budget request would raise funding for autonomous systems from a few hundred million dollars to more than 50 billion, while the stock still trades well below its high. |
| ESLT
Elbit Systems Ltd. |
9.7% | 86 | Elbit builds its own drones, rocket artillery and battlefield software rather than buying those pieces from other firms, which lets it keep more of the profit on every system it sells. Its order book just passed 30 billion dollars for the first time with most of the work now outside Israel, though the shares are expensive against current earnings. |
| CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation |
9.3% | 58 | Curtiss Wright makes nuclear propulsion equipment for Navy submarines and rugged computers for military electronics, and orders are running well ahead of sales in both. Most of its growth comes from nuclear work rather than drones or autonomy, and the shares already trade close to their record high. |
| AVAV
AeroVironment Inc. |
9.2% | 86 | AeroVironment makes the small drones, one way attack munitions and counter drone systems the US military buys in the largest numbers, and the 2027 budget request funds those exact lines with more than 70 billion dollars. The stock has fallen roughly 60 percent from its high on a weak profit forecast and an accounting restatement, so the demand picture and the share price are pointing in opposite directions. |
| ONDS
Ondas Holdings |
9.0% | 46 | Ondas spent 2026 buying six defense technology companies, turning a small drone software business into a counter drone and defense platform with a 525 million dollar revenue target. It paid for those deals largely by issuing stock, so the share count is up nearly fourfold in a year, more than 40 percent of the tradable shares are sold short, and the company is valued near 5 billion dollars on under 100 million dollars of actual past revenue. |
| PL
Planet Labs PBC |
7.7% | 74 | Planet Labs photographs the entire surface of the earth every day and sells that feed to governments, with defense and intelligence revenue now growing more than 65 percent. The shares fell hard when investors rotated into newly listed space competitors, though profitability is still only around breakeven and the company has registered a large facility to sell more stock. |
| RCAT
Red Cat Holdings |
6.4% | 72 | Red Cat makes the Black Widow reconnaissance drone the US Army selected for its squad level program, and the Army has signalled it intends to buy nearly 6,000 systems over five years, with orders now also arriving from Japan and NATO. Revenue is growing very fast from a small base, but the share price already assumes full rate production succeeds and the company has repeatedly raised money by issuing new shares. |
How names are judged
01
Read
News, filings, and market data on every name we follow, gathered daily.
02
Judge
Two separate questions per company: how essential it is to the thesis, and whether now is a good moment to own it.
03
Size
Position size follows conviction, inside firm limits on any single name and any one sector.
04
Review
Nothing is bought, sold, or dropped by a formula. Every change is decided by a person.
What we have learned
All findings →L-001 · 2026-08-05
v2 conviction had no demonstrated predictive power, and the point estimates ran backwards
point for a first v3 review, never a judgment to defend or anchor to. Measured on the pre-rebuild snapshot: each conviction observation paired with the stock's 21-day forward return, minus the universe median over the same window, so the market is controlled for. | conviction band | obs | excess % | ±95% CI | effective N | reading | |---|...