Conviction / Precision Effects
WWD
Woodward Inc.
conviction
Woodward makes control systems for aircraft engines and industrial turbines, and also the guidance actuation used in precision bombs. Business is at record levels and the outlook was raised, but the stock has pulled back, and most of the growth is coming from commercial aviation rather than from weapons.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $374.97 |
| 30-day move | -7.4% |
| Position in 52-week range | 65 |
| From the 52-week high | -16.8% |
| Average daily volume | $271.6M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Defense turbine fuel systems and actuation; critical engine controls for military jet propulsion and autonomous aerial vehicle powerplants.
Standing judgment
Woodward's smart defense actuation sits inside guided weapons such as JDAM, which is squarely precision effects, but it is a modest slice of a company whose revenue is dominated by commercial aero OEM, aftermarket and industrial power generation. Q3 FY26 sales $1.1B up 21%, adjusted EPS $2.52 up 43%, guidance raised to $9.30 to $9.50, yet the stock sold off on the outlook and sits about 16% below its 52-week high. That drawdown against rising estimates is the most attractive setup in this batch on price alone.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Estimates are rising while the multiple has compressed, and management has flagged customer requests to expand guided-weapons capacity, which would convert a price-driven defense line into a volume-driven one. | Q3 FY26 reported 2026-07-29: record sales, aerospace segment up 19% to $709M, industrial up 26% to $401M, adjusted EPS guidance raised. Defense OEM sales up 9% driven mainly by JDAM pricing taken in FY2025 rather than units, with services up 8%. Management noted indications of future capacity-expans |
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Estimates are rising while the multiple has compressed, and management has flagged customer requests to expand guided-weapons capacity, which would convert a price-driven defense line into a volume-driven one. | Q3 FY26 reported 2026-07-29: record sales, aerospace segment up 19% to $709M, industrial up 26% to $401M, adjusted EPS guidance raised. Defense OEM sales up 9% driven mainly by JDAM pricing taken in FY2025 rather than units, with services up 8%. Management noted indications of future capacity-expans |
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | +42 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Estimates are rising while the multiple has compressed, and management has flagged customer requests to expand guided-weapons capacity, which would convert a price-driven defense line into a volume-driven one. | Q3 FY26 reported 2026-07-29: record sales, aerospace segment up 19% to $709M, industrial up 26% to $401M, adjusted EPS guidance raised. Defense OEM sales up 9% driven mainly by JDAM pricing taken in FY2025 rather than units, with services up 8%. Management noted indications of future capacity-expans |
| 2026-07-29 | 20 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 14 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 27 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 23 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 27 | +23 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 4 | -19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 23 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 27 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 20 | +13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 7 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 7 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 11 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |