About
Defense is shifting to software-defined autonomous mass
Three convictions drive the book. Software-defined wins, because the value moves from airframes and hulls to the autonomy and sensor fusion that retarget a platform faster than an adversary adapts. Mass beats exquisite, because attritable systems produced in volume beat small numbers of irreplaceable platforms, and procurement is following. And new primes are vertically integrated, capturing margin that traditional primes subcontract away.
How a name is judged
Each company gets two separate judgments. One is how essential it is to the thesis actually playing out, which changes slowly and only when the company's position genuinely changes. The other is whether now is a good moment to own it, which is allowed to move faster.
Scores are absolute. A name is judged against a fixed standard, never ranked against the others, so a good company is never marked down because a different one had a good week. Every change to a score carries a written reason and the evidence behind it.
How the book is run
Rules that do not move
Long only. No leverage, no derivatives. Limits on any single position and on any one sector. Nothing is removed by a formula.
Decisions a person makes
Every purchase, sale, and removal is proposed with a written case and decided by a person. No trades are placed automatically.
Honest limits
Whether these judgments are any good is measured rather than asserted, and the record is short. Where the evidence is not yet strong enough to claim skill, the honest answer is that it cannot be claimed, and that is the answer given. Published findings carry their sample size.