Conviction / Uncrewed Platforms
VVX
V2X Inc.
conviction
V2X runs training, maintenance, and logistics for military aircraft and drone fleets under long term government contracts, and it holds a $12.7 billion order book. It is growing revenue at a double digit rate and trades at roughly half of one year of sales, which is unusually cheap for a defense business of this size.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $79.06 |
| 30-day move | +4.8% |
| Position in 52-week range | 66 |
| From the 52-week high | -15.9% |
| Average daily volume | $63.3M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Converged defense services including autonomous base operations, C5ISR sustainment, and training systems across 200+ global sites.
Standing judgment
V2X operates, trains, and sustains uncrewed and crewed fleets for the services rather than designing or building autonomous platforms, so it is the adjacent services layer that benefits from drone proliferation without being a bottleneck for it. The cheapest name in the bucket by a wide margin at roughly 0.5x sales, with a $12.7B total backlog and management deleveraging toward about 2x net leverage by year end. The Kuwait LOGCAP scope change cut total backlog from the $13.8B Q1 record, which is the main thing to watch.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 68 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Double digit revenue growth and roughly $1B of post-quarter awards including unmanned aircraft training, against a valuation of about half of one times revenue, gives an unusually favorable forward setup for a business with this much contracted backlog. | Q2 2026 revenue $1.26B, up 17 percent year over year, with full-year guidance raised to $4.875B to $5.025B and adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance raised alongside. Total backlog $12.7B; funded backlog $2.5B, up 10 percent sequentially and 8 percent year over year. Roughly $1B of awards received after |
| 2026-08-05 | 68 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Double digit revenue growth and roughly $1B of post-quarter awards including unmanned aircraft training, against a valuation of about half of one times revenue, gives an unusually favorable forward setup for a business with this much contracted backlog. | Q2 2026 revenue $1.26B, up 17 percent year over year, with full-year guidance raised to $4.875B to $5.025B and adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance raised alongside. Total backlog $12.7B; funded backlog $2.5B, up 10 percent sequentially and 8 percent year over year. Roughly $1B of awards received after |
| 2026-08-05 | 68 | -5 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Double digit revenue growth and roughly $1B of post-quarter awards including unmanned aircraft training, against a valuation of about half of one times revenue, gives an unusually favorable forward setup for a business with this much contracted backlog. | Q2 2026 revenue $1.26B, up 17 percent year over year, with full-year guidance raised to $4.875B to $5.025B and adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance raised alongside. Total backlog $12.7B; funded backlog $2.5B, up 10 percent sequentially and 8 percent year over year. Roughly $1B of awards received after |
| 2026-07-29 | 73 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 71 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 73 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 65 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 78 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 80 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 73 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 76 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 80 | +13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 67 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 71 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 78 | +17 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |