Conviction / Sensing and Space ISR
TDY
Teledyne Technologies
conviction · held at 4.6%
Teledyne makes the thermal and imaging sensors built into a very wide range of military hardware, so it benefits no matter which weapons program wins. Business is strong and guidance went up, but the stock sits within about one percent of its record high and is already priced for that.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $685.67 |
| 30-day move | +6.9% |
| Position in 52-week range | 96 |
| From the 52-week high | -1.1% |
| Average daily volume | $284.0M |
| Weight in the book | 4.6% |
| Since last rebalance | +10.7% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
ISR sensors, payloads, and autonomy stack components across FLIR imaging, marine instruments, and defense electronics.
Standing judgment
At $685.68 the stock is 1.1% off an all-time high, in the 96th percentile of its range and at a premium to most fair-value estimates, so forward return depends entirely on continued beats with no re-rating available. Hold the exposure, but this is not where incremental capital should go.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | +4 | The sensing picks-and-shovels position is close to thesis-central and the results keep beating, but at 96% of its 52-week range the entry does the opposite of favourable, which is the whole distance between 86 and 76. | Q2 2026 adjusted EPS $6.28 on revenue $1.66B versus $5.79 and $1.58B expected, sales up 9.8% and non-GAAP EPS up 20.8% y/y, FY2026 outlook raised to just under 7% revenue growth and more than $6.53B. Teledyne FLIR thermal cores and detectors sit inside a large share of ISR, counter-UAS and precision |
| 2026-08-05 | 72 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Best-in-bucket operational quality and a genuine defense acceleration, discounted for a full valuation that leaves little room for disappointment. | Q2 2026: net sales $1,662.5M, +9.8% y/y; non-GAAP diluted EPS $6.28, +20.8% y/y; Digital Imaging +12.7%. FY26 revenue outlook raised by $120M to over $6.53B, non-GAAP EPS guidance raised $0.55 at midpoint. FY26 segment growth guided at Digital Imaging +7.5% with FLIR over +9%, Aerospace & Defense +7 |
| 2026-08-05 | 72 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Best-in-bucket operational quality and a genuine defense acceleration, discounted for a full valuation that leaves little room for disappointment. | Q2 2026: net sales $1,662.5M, +9.8% y/y; non-GAAP diluted EPS $6.28, +20.8% y/y; Digital Imaging +12.7%. FY26 revenue outlook raised by $120M to over $6.53B, non-GAAP EPS guidance raised $0.55 at midpoint. FY26 segment growth guided at Digital Imaging +7.5% with FLIR over +9%, Aerospace & Defense +7 |
| 2026-08-05 | 72 | -14 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Best-in-bucket operational quality and a genuine defense acceleration, discounted for a full valuation that leaves little room for disappointment. | Q2 2026: net sales $1,662.5M, +9.8% y/y; non-GAAP diluted EPS $6.28, +20.8% y/y; Digital Imaging +12.7%. FY26 revenue outlook raised by $120M to over $6.53B, non-GAAP EPS guidance raised $0.55 at midpoint. FY26 segment growth guided at Digital Imaging +7.5% with FLIR over +9%, Aerospace & Defense +7 |
| 2026-07-29 | 86 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 90 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 94 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 85 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 94 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 89 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 85 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 91 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 89 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 91 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 90 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 88 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |