Conviction / Autonomy Software
SAIC
Science Applications International
conviction
SAIC's revenue declined last year and most of its new work is recompeting contracts it already held rather than winning new programs. With the shares near their high, returns depend on buybacks rather than on growth.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $119.82 |
| 30-day move | +5.8% |
| Position in 52-week range | 92 |
| From the 52-week high | -2.9% |
| Average daily volume | $57.0M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Defense IT modernization and AI integration; digital engineering, simulation, and training systems for autonomous platforms.
Standing judgment
SAIC is a government IT modernization and recompete business; its wins are IT services, radar task orders and space and intelligence recompetes, which sit adjacent to the thesis rather than inside it. Revenue actually shrank in FY26 and the stock is within 2% of its 52 week high, so there is neither growth nor a valuation cushion driving forward return.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 55 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The business is flat to declining organically while the share price has already recovered to its highs, leaving free cash flow and buybacks as the main return driver rather than any thesis-linked growth. | FY2026: revenue roughly $7.3B, down $217M year over year on reduced volume on existing contracts. Backlog $22.6B at FY26 year end with $3.6B funded, versus $23.8B at Q3 FY26 with $3.8B funded. Notable FY26 wins were a $95M GAO IT services deal and a $330M space and intelligence recompete; Q3 FY26 ad |
| 2026-08-05 | 55 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The business is flat to declining organically while the share price has already recovered to its highs, leaving free cash flow and buybacks as the main return driver rather than any thesis-linked growth. | FY2026: revenue roughly $7.3B, down $217M year over year on reduced volume on existing contracts. Backlog $22.6B at FY26 year end with $3.6B funded, versus $23.8B at Q3 FY26 with $3.8B funded. Notable FY26 wins were a $95M GAO IT services deal and a $330M space and intelligence recompete; Q3 FY26 ad |
| 2026-08-05 | 55 | -29 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The business is flat to declining organically while the share price has already recovered to its highs, leaving free cash flow and buybacks as the main return driver rather than any thesis-linked growth. | FY2026: revenue roughly $7.3B, down $217M year over year on reduced volume on existing contracts. Backlog $22.6B at FY26 year end with $3.6B funded, versus $23.8B at Q3 FY26 with $3.8B funded. Notable FY26 wins were a $95M GAO IT services deal and a $330M space and intelligence recompete; Q3 FY26 ad |
| 2026-07-29 | 84 | +15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 69 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 76 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 67 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 71 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 67 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 61 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 65 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 65 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 56 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 69 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 67 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |