Conviction / Primes and Integrators
RTX
RTX Corporation
conviction
RTX builds most of the missiles and air defense interceptors the US and its allies are now buying in far larger quantities, and its order book hit a record 289 billion dollars. The business is performing well but the stock is trading at the top of its range, so much of that strength is already reflected in the price.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $220.12 |
| 30-day move | +9.6% |
| Position in 52-week range | 98 |
| From the 52-week high | -0.6% |
| Average daily volume | $1.1B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems in massive demand; Raytheon missile division and Collins autonomy programs across all domains.
Standing judgment
Raytheon is the largest producer of the interceptors and effectors that a mass-fires doctrine actually consumes, and Collins won a seat in the CCA autonomy software pool, but roughly half of RTX is commercial aerospace, which dilutes its claim on this thesis. Record $289B backlog and a 2.42 book-to-bill at Raytheon against an FY27 munitions request of $76.3B versus $26.8B in FY26. The problem is entry: the stock is 0.5% off its 52-week high after guidance was raised twice, so most of the good news is in the price.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The munitions line item is nearly tripling and RTX is the primary beneficiary, but the equity is at an all-time high with guidance already marked up, so the forward return is constructive rather than exceptional. | Q2 2026 adjusted EPS $1.89 vs $1.66 consensus, revenue $24.71B vs $22.88B; backlog $289B, +22% y/y ($170B commercial, $119B defense); Raytheon revenue +18%, bookings $19.9B, book-to-bill 2.42 including $5B GEM-T Patriot and $4B classified; FY26 guide raised to $95.0-96.0B sales, EPS $7.10-7.25, FCF |
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The munitions line item is nearly tripling and RTX is the primary beneficiary, but the equity is at an all-time high with guidance already marked up, so the forward return is constructive rather than exceptional. | Q2 2026 adjusted EPS $1.89 vs $1.66 consensus, revenue $24.71B vs $22.88B; backlog $289B, +22% y/y ($170B commercial, $119B defense); Raytheon revenue +18%, bookings $19.9B, book-to-bill 2.42 including $5B GEM-T Patriot and $4B classified; FY26 guide raised to $95.0-96.0B sales, EPS $7.10-7.25, FCF |
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | -16 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The munitions line item is nearly tripling and RTX is the primary beneficiary, but the equity is at an all-time high with guidance already marked up, so the forward return is constructive rather than exceptional. | Q2 2026 adjusted EPS $1.89 vs $1.66 consensus, revenue $24.71B vs $22.88B; backlog $289B, +22% y/y ($170B commercial, $119B defense); Raytheon revenue +18%, bookings $19.9B, book-to-bill 2.42 including $5B GEM-T Patriot and $4B classified; FY26 guide raised to $95.0-96.0B sales, EPS $7.10-7.25, FCF |
| 2026-07-29 | 82 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 91 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 83 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 80 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 73 | -5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 78 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 76 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 71 | -11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 82 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 76 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 80 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 83 | +16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |