Conviction / Sensing and Space ISR
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
conviction
Rocket Lab launches satellites and builds the spacecraft that carry sensors into orbit, and it has agreed to buy Iridium to add a working global satellite network and licensed spectrum. Its larger Neutron rocket has slipped to late this year and the acquisition will not close until 2027, so the story is strong but the next year is about execution.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $75.41 |
| 30-day move | -9.6% |
| Position in 52-week range | 33 |
| From the 52-week high | -50.1% |
| Average daily volume | $1.6B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Electron launch vehicle and HASTE hypersonic testbed for DoD; Neutron medium-lift rocket targeting national security space missions.
Standing judgment
Rocket Lab is the only Western at-scale alternative to SpaceX for putting sensing constellations into orbit and it also builds the satellite buses those constellations fly on, so a sensing thesis that assumes launch access it does not control has an unhedged dependency. Two large uncertainties land at once: Neutron has slipped to a Q4 2026 debut after a January tank test failure and over $360M spent, and the $8B Iridium acquisition will not close until mid-2027 while requiring $27 per share in cash. The v2 score of 23 was not a judgment about Rocket Lab, but the correct number here is constructive rather than enthusiastic.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The structural position is excellent and the sector-wide de-rating has removed the froth, but Neutron execution risk and an unclosed leveraged acquisition sit directly in front of the next twelve months of returns. | 29 Jun 2026: agreement to acquire Iridium for $54/share ($27.00 cash plus stock on an exchange ratio collared $67.50-$112.50), ~$8.0B enterprise value, close expected mid-2027 pending Iridium shareholder and regulatory approval. Neutron first flight targeted Q4 2026 after a January 2026 stage-one ta |
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The structural position is excellent and the sector-wide de-rating has removed the froth, but Neutron execution risk and an unclosed leveraged acquisition sit directly in front of the next twelve months of returns. | 29 Jun 2026: agreement to acquire Iridium for $54/share ($27.00 cash plus stock on an exchange ratio collared $67.50-$112.50), ~$8.0B enterprise value, close expected mid-2027 pending Iridium shareholder and regulatory approval. Neutron first flight targeted Q4 2026 after a January 2026 stage-one ta |
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | +43 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The structural position is excellent and the sector-wide de-rating has removed the froth, but Neutron execution risk and an unclosed leveraged acquisition sit directly in front of the next twelve months of returns. | 29 Jun 2026: agreement to acquire Iridium for $54/share ($27.00 cash plus stock on an exchange ratio collared $67.50-$112.50), ~$8.0B enterprise value, close expected mid-2027 pending Iridium shareholder and regulatory approval. Neutron first flight targeted Q4 2026 after a January 2026 stage-one ta |
| 2026-07-29 | 23 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 20 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 23 | +16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 7 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 20 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 17 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 14 | -16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 30 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 27 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 20 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 17 | -22 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 39 | +19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |