Conviction / Sensing and Space ISR
RDW
Redwire Corporation
conviction
Redwire builds space hardware components and small drones after buying Edge Autonomy last year. It has missed its own revenue and earnings targets repeatedly, and its full year target now requires a very large second half.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $10.52 |
| 30-day move | +3.0% |
| Position in 52-week range | 26 |
| From the 52-week high | -60.5% |
| Average daily volume | $191.0M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Space manufacturing and autonomous payload integration; digital engineering for national security space and on-orbit servicing.
Standing judgment
Redwire sells real space infrastructure components and, since the Edge Autonomy acquisition, small UAS, but the content is diffuse subassembly and platform work rather than a sensing bottleneck, and the fund's thesis plainly survives without it. Q1 2026 missed badly on both lines and the full-year guide of $450-500M now requires an implausibly strong second half. Q2 results print after the close today, 5 August, so any score written now is being written into a binary event.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 44 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Execution has repeatedly fallen short of guidance while the company carries acquisition debt and negative earnings, and the thesis case for owning it is weaker than for anything else in this bucket. | Q1 2026: EPS -$0.40 against -$0.15 expected, revenue $96.97M against $105.04M expected (-7.7% surprise). FY2026 guidance $450-500M implies ~42% growth at midpoint and demands a large second-half ramp. Balance sheet: ~$145M cash, ~$193M total debt, debt-to-equity 18.7%, current ratio 1.8, so solvency |
| 2026-08-05 | 44 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Execution has repeatedly fallen short of guidance while the company carries acquisition debt and negative earnings, and the thesis case for owning it is weaker than for anything else in this bucket. | Q1 2026: EPS -$0.40 against -$0.15 expected, revenue $96.97M against $105.04M expected (-7.7% surprise). FY2026 guidance $450-500M implies ~42% growth at midpoint and demands a large second-half ramp. Balance sheet: ~$145M cash, ~$193M total debt, debt-to-equity 18.7%, current ratio 1.8, so solvency |
| 2026-08-05 | 44 | +5 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Execution has repeatedly fallen short of guidance while the company carries acquisition debt and negative earnings, and the thesis case for owning it is weaker than for anything else in this bucket. | Q1 2026: EPS -$0.40 against -$0.15 expected, revenue $96.97M against $105.04M expected (-7.7% surprise). FY2026 guidance $450-500M implies ~42% growth at midpoint and demands a large second-half ramp. Balance sheet: ~$145M cash, ~$193M total debt, debt-to-equity 18.7%, current ratio 1.8, so solvency |
| 2026-07-29 | 39 | -22 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 61 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 65 | +11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 54 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 56 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 63 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 63 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 67 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 73 | +14 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 59 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 61 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 59 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |