Conviction / Autonomy Software
PSN
Parsons Corporation
conviction
Parsons cut its profit forecast sharply after a government contract was cancelled and took a 77 million dollar loss on two contracts it is trying to sell. The shares fell 35 percent in a day and several law firms have opened investigations, so the true earnings power of the business is unclear.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $46.68 |
| 30-day move | -17.4% |
| Position in 52-week range | 20 |
| From the 52-week high | -47.8% |
| Average daily volume | $77.7M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Missile defense engineering, space systems, and cybersecurity; critical infrastructure for autonomous weapons test and integration.
Standing judgment
Parsons has genuine counter-UAS, electronic warfare and C5ISR content that sits inside the thesis, but roughly half the company is infrastructure and engineering services that has nothing to do with it. Down 47% from its high after a 35% single day drop, which is the kind of dislocation that sometimes creates return. The problem is that the estimate base is not yet trustworthy.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 52 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A confidential fixed price contract was cancelled by the administration and guidance was cut hard, which means the forward earnings base is unknown rather than merely lower, and securities investigations add an overhang before any recovery case can be underwritten. | 2026-07-29: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance cut to $500M to $560M from $615M to $675M and revenue to $6.2B to $6.5B from $6.5B to $6.8B; shares fell 35%. Q2 2026 EPS missed by $0.82. A $77M loss booked on two nonstrategic remote contracts held for sale. Management cited planned divestitures, lower p |
| 2026-08-05 | 52 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A confidential fixed price contract was cancelled by the administration and guidance was cut hard, which means the forward earnings base is unknown rather than merely lower, and securities investigations add an overhang before any recovery case can be underwritten. | 2026-07-29: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance cut to $500M to $560M from $615M to $675M and revenue to $6.2B to $6.5B from $6.5B to $6.8B; shares fell 35%. Q2 2026 EPS missed by $0.82. A $77M loss booked on two nonstrategic remote contracts held for sale. Management cited planned divestitures, lower p |
| 2026-08-05 | 52 | -9 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A confidential fixed price contract was cancelled by the administration and guidance was cut hard, which means the forward earnings base is unknown rather than merely lower, and securities investigations add an overhang before any recovery case can be underwritten. | 2026-07-29: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance cut to $500M to $560M from $615M to $675M and revenue to $6.2B to $6.5B from $6.5B to $6.8B; shares fell 35%. Q2 2026 EPS missed by $0.82. A $77M loss booked on two nonstrategic remote contracts held for sale. Management cited planned divestitures, lower p |
| 2026-07-29 | 61 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 65 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 71 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 69 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 63 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 61 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 67 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 73 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 76 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 69 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 63 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 63 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |