Conviction / Autonomy Software
PLTR
Palantir Technologies
conviction · held at 5.6%
Palantir just posted its fastest growth in years, with revenue up 93 percent and its government business up 90 percent. The Pentagon has turned its battlefield decision software into a permanent program of record, which converts a series of pilot contracts into a durable budget line, though the shares are priced for a great deal of that already.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $160.82 |
| 30-day move | +19.7% |
| Position in 52-week range | 54 |
| From the 52-week high | -22.5% |
| Average daily volume | $7.2B |
| Weight in the book | 5.6% |
| Since last rebalance | +25.2% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
TITAN targeting system, Maven AI, and Foundry mission AI make Palantir the software backbone of autonomous defense decision-making.
Standing judgment
At $160.82 the stock is 22.5% off its high but in the 54th percentile of its range after a 19.7% thirty-day move, and near 80x forward revenue the fundamental case can keep compounding while the stock goes nowhere for a year. Own it, but do not expect the entry to help.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 88 | +12 | Raised 12 points because what changed is that Maven stopped being a contract vehicle and became a launched program of record while government revenue accelerated to 90% growth, which resolves the evidence leg entirely and leaves valuation as the single unresolved leg at the top of the 85-89 band. | Q2 2026 revenue $1.935B up 93% y/y and 19% sequentially, US revenue up 115% to $1.573B, US government revenue up 90% to $809M, FY2026 guidance raised to a $8.154B midpoint or 82% growth. Management confirmed the first program of record launched on the Maven platform this quarter, with over 25,000 bu |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Revenue growth accelerated to 93% with US government up 90%, and the FY2027 budget request puts $2.3B behind Maven Smart System and Joint Fires Network as CJADC2 moves from rapid prototype to program of record. | Q2 2026 (reported 2026-08-03): revenue $1.94B, +93% y/y; US commercial +149% to $764M; US government +90% to $809M; FY26 guidance raised to $8.15B to $8.16B (+82%) and adjusted FCF to $4.5B to $4.7B. DepSecDef Feinberg memo of 2026-03-09 designates MSS a program of record effective September 2026 wi |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Revenue growth accelerated to 93% with US government up 90%, and the FY2027 budget request puts $2.3B behind Maven Smart System and Joint Fires Network as CJADC2 moves from rapid prototype to program of record. | Q2 2026 (reported 2026-08-03): revenue $1.94B, +93% y/y; US commercial +149% to $764M; US government +90% to $809M; FY26 guidance raised to $8.15B to $8.16B (+82%) and adjusted FCF to $4.5B to $4.7B. DepSecDef Feinberg memo of 2026-03-09 designates MSS a program of record effective September 2026 wi |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | -14 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Revenue growth accelerated to 93% with US government up 90%, and the FY2027 budget request puts $2.3B behind Maven Smart System and Joint Fires Network as CJADC2 moves from rapid prototype to program of record. | Q2 2026 (reported 2026-08-03): revenue $1.94B, +93% y/y; US commercial +149% to $764M; US government +90% to $809M; FY26 guidance raised to $8.15B to $8.16B (+82%) and adjusted FCF to $4.5B to $4.7B. DepSecDef Feinberg memo of 2026-03-09 designates MSS a program of record effective September 2026 wi |
| 2026-07-29 | 90 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 82 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 86 | -5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 91 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 91 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 85 | -8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 93 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 89 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 85 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 88 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 85 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 84 | -10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |