Conviction / Sensing and Space ISR
PL
Planet Labs PBC
conviction · held at 7.7%
Planet Labs photographs the entire surface of the earth every day and sells that feed to governments, with defense and intelligence revenue now growing more than 65 percent. The shares fell hard when investors rotated into newly listed space competitors, though profitability is still only around breakeven and the company has registered a large facility to sell more stock.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $22.58 |
| 30-day move | -21.2% |
| Position in 52-week range | 36 |
| From the 52-week high | -56.4% |
| Average daily volume | $222.0M |
| Weight in the book | 7.7% |
| Since last rebalance | -20.0% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Daily global imaging from 200+ satellites; defense and intelligence customers use Planet data for change detection, GEOINT, and battlespace awareness.
Standing judgment
At $22.58 the stock is 56% off its high in the 36th percentile of its range with momentum at minus 21% over thirty days, so this is still a falling knife rather than a base. Liquidity is adequate for a copy-traded book at this size, but the ATM shelf means any strength can be met with supply.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | -2 | The imaging layer is real and the backlog confirms it, but breakeven EBITDA next to a $1.5B shelf means the de-rating is not purely a rotation story, which keeps it in the strong band rather than above it. | Backlog over $906M, up 79% y/y; record quarterly revenue with defense and intelligence revenue growing more than 65%; first full year of non-GAAP profitability in fiscal 2026; FY revenue guidance $425M-$441M against a $433M midpoint. The offsets are adjusted EBITDA guided to breakeven at best, a $1. |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Sovereign defense contracts are converting Planet from a commercial imagery vendor into subscribed national infrastructure, while the share price has been repriced by a sector-wide multiple reset rather than by anything specific to Planet. | Q1 FY27 (reported 5 Jun 2026): record revenue $94M, +42% y/y; non-GAAP gross margin 56%; backlog >$900M, +~79% y/y; Defense & Intelligence revenue +50% y/y. FY27 guidance raised to $425-441M revenue, gross margin 52-54%, adjusted EBITDA breakeven to $10M. Germany contract ~$240M, Sweden nine-figure |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Sovereign defense contracts are converting Planet from a commercial imagery vendor into subscribed national infrastructure, while the share price has been repriced by a sector-wide multiple reset rather than by anything specific to Planet. | Q1 FY27 (reported 5 Jun 2026): record revenue $94M, +42% y/y; non-GAAP gross margin 56%; backlog >$900M, +~79% y/y; Defense & Intelligence revenue +50% y/y. FY27 guidance raised to $425-441M revenue, gross margin 52-54%, adjusted EBITDA breakeven to $10M. Germany contract ~$240M, Sweden nine-figure |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | -7 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Sovereign defense contracts are converting Planet from a commercial imagery vendor into subscribed national infrastructure, while the share price has been repriced by a sector-wide multiple reset rather than by anything specific to Planet. | Q1 FY27 (reported 5 Jun 2026): record revenue $94M, +42% y/y; non-GAAP gross margin 56%; backlog >$900M, +~79% y/y; Defense & Intelligence revenue +50% y/y. FY27 guidance raised to $425-441M revenue, gross margin 52-54%, adjusted EBITDA breakeven to $10M. Germany contract ~$240M, Sweden nine-figure |
| 2026-07-29 | 83 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 92 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 91 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 93 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 92 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 92 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 94 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 92 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 92 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 93 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 86 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 85 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |