Conviction / Uncrewed Platforms
ONDS
Ondas Holdings
conviction · held at 9.0%
Ondas spent 2026 buying six defense technology companies, turning a small drone software business into a counter drone and defense platform with a 525 million dollar revenue target. It paid for those deals largely by issuing stock, so the share count is up nearly fourfold in a year, more than 40 percent of the tradable shares are sold short, and the company is valued near 5 billion dollars on under 100 million dollars of actual past revenue.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $8.93 |
| 30-day move | +21.4% |
| Position in 52-week range | 49 |
| From the 52-week high | -41.6% |
| Average daily volume | $858.8M |
| Weight in the book | 9.0% |
| Since last rebalance | -3.7% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Counter-UAS and drone-as-a-service capabilities via American Robotics; infrastructure-grade autonomous ISR.
Standing judgment
At $8.93 the 21.4% thirty-day move is a short-squeeze signature on a 44% short float, not a fundamental re-rating, and a 9.02% position in a name this reflexive is the largest liquidity hazard in a copy-traded book. This is the position to argue down in writing first.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 46 | -6 | Marked down to weak because the share count math, not the order book, sets the return here: revenue guidance was bought with paper at a pace that outruns what the acquired businesses can earn. | 2026 revenue guidance raised to more than $525M, but built from five acquisitions totalling $557M plus the $875.8M DZYNE deal, with those businesses contributing roughly $230M combined in 2026. Shares outstanding went from 380.8M at year end to 569.9M by 23 July, up 49.7% in seven months and roughly |
| 2026-08-05 | 52 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The revenue ramp is real but acquired, the share count nearly quadrupled in twelve months to fund it, and free cash flow is negative, so per-share forward return is far weaker than the headline growth suggests. | Q1 2026 revenue $50.1M versus $4.3M a year earlier; TTM revenue $96.61M against a $5.00B market cap. 2026 revenue target raised from $390M to $525M immediately after agreeing to acquire DZYNE Technologies for $875.8M in cash and stock. Six defense-technology acquisitions closed during 2026, includin |
| 2026-08-05 | 52 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The revenue ramp is real but acquired, the share count nearly quadrupled in twelve months to fund it, and free cash flow is negative, so per-share forward return is far weaker than the headline growth suggests. | Q1 2026 revenue $50.1M versus $4.3M a year earlier; TTM revenue $96.61M against a $5.00B market cap. 2026 revenue target raised from $390M to $525M immediately after agreeing to acquire DZYNE Technologies for $875.8M in cash and stock. Six defense-technology acquisitions closed during 2026, includin |
| 2026-08-05 | 52 | -24 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The revenue ramp is real but acquired, the share count nearly quadrupled in twelve months to fund it, and free cash flow is negative, so per-share forward return is far weaker than the headline growth suggests. | Q1 2026 revenue $50.1M versus $4.3M a year earlier; TTM revenue $96.61M against a $5.00B market cap. 2026 revenue target raised from $390M to $525M immediately after agreeing to acquire DZYNE Technologies for $875.8M in cash and stock. Six defense-technology acquisitions closed during 2026, includin |
| 2026-07-29 | 76 | -17 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 93 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 92 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 88 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 85 | -5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 90 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 86 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 85 | -5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 90 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 90 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 82 | +13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 69 | -23 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |