Conviction / Autonomy Software
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
conviction · held at 3.4%
Nvidia chips sit inside most of the drones and autonomous systems this fund owns, and the Pentagon has cleared the company to run on its classified networks. The catch is that defense is a rounding error in Nvidia's revenue, so the shares move on data center demand rather than on military budgets.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $221.28 |
| 30-day move | +12.4% |
| Position in 52-week range | 79 |
| From the 52-week high | -6.5% |
| Average daily volume | $29.5B |
| Weight in the book | 3.4% |
| Since last rebalance | +5.0% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Defense AI compute via Project Linus and Holoscan; GPU platforms powering autonomous targeting, simulation, and edge inference for DoD.
Standing judgment
At $221.28 the stock is 6.5% off its high in the 79th percentile of its range after a 12.4% thirty-day move, so the entry offers nothing and the drawdown risk is a data-center capex event, not a Pentagon one. Owning it inside this fund is a category error worth naming rather than a thesis expression.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 68 | -2 | Structurally the substrate the autonomy layer runs on, but essentially none of the forward return comes from defense and the entry is at the high, so as a warfare holding it is constructive and unresolved rather than strong. | Jetson Orin is the de facto embedded inference platform inside the uncrewed systems this fund owns, and Nvidia is one of eight firms cleared to operate on DoD classified networks at IL6 and IL7. Congress directed $9.8B toward autonomous and unmanned systems in FY2026 and DoD total IT spend reached $ |
| 2026-08-05 | 70 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): DoD certified Nvidia alongside SpaceX, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, AWS, Oracle and Reflection to operate on isolated classified networks, formalizing its position inside the defense compute stack while commercial demand remains the actual earnings driver. | DoD classified-network certification at Impact Levels 6 and 7 announced May 2026 (Anthropic excluded amid a contract dispute). Jetson Orin family is the standard embedded GPU inference platform for SWAP-constrained military autonomy; industry estimates put a majority of military autonomous-system pr |
| 2026-08-05 | 70 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): DoD certified Nvidia alongside SpaceX, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, AWS, Oracle and Reflection to operate on isolated classified networks, formalizing its position inside the defense compute stack while commercial demand remains the actual earnings driver. | DoD classified-network certification at Impact Levels 6 and 7 announced May 2026 (Anthropic excluded amid a contract dispute). Jetson Orin family is the standard embedded GPU inference platform for SWAP-constrained military autonomy; industry estimates put a majority of military autonomous-system pr |
| 2026-08-05 | 70 | -8 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): DoD certified Nvidia alongside SpaceX, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, AWS, Oracle and Reflection to operate on isolated classified networks, formalizing its position inside the defense compute stack while commercial demand remains the actual earnings driver. | DoD classified-network certification at Impact Levels 6 and 7 announced May 2026 (Anthropic excluded amid a contract dispute). Jetson Orin family is the standard embedded GPU inference platform for SWAP-constrained military autonomy; industry estimates put a majority of military autonomous-system pr |
| 2026-07-29 | 78 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 73 | -5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 78 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 71 | -11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 82 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 82 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 84 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 82 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 83 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 83 | +24 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 59 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 61 | -22 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |