Conviction / Autonomy Software
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
conviction
Microsoft hosts military cloud workloads and is approved to run advanced models on classified Pentagon networks. Those contracts are too small to move a company this size, and the shares are trading on questions about whether its commercial software subscriptions are earning back their investment.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $488.84 |
| 30-day move | +25.7% |
| Position in 52-week range | 68 |
| From the 52-week high | -11.7% |
| Average daily volume | $21.9B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
JWCC cloud infrastructure for DoD, HoloLens IVAS headset for Army, and Azure Government powering classified autonomous workloads.
Standing judgment
Microsoft runs Azure Government and is certified for classified DoD networks at IL6 and IL7, so it hosts a share of the software layer, but it is one of four interchangeable cloud vendors and writes none of the autonomy itself. Down 12% from its high on Copilot monetization doubts and a securities class action headline. A fine business, but the near-term debate is about commercial AI payback, not defense.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 60 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Certification to run frontier models on DoD classified networks and a share of the roughly $10.5B FY2026 JWCC AI workload is a real but immaterial contributor against an open question on Copilot revenue conversion. | May 2026: DoD signed agreements with eight firms including Microsoft to deploy frontier AI on classified networks at IL6 and IL7. Microsoft is one of four JWCC providers sharing an estimated $10.5B of FY2026 AI-specific cloud spend. A securities fraud class action was filed following a roughly 10% s |
| 2026-08-05 | 60 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Certification to run frontier models on DoD classified networks and a share of the roughly $10.5B FY2026 JWCC AI workload is a real but immaterial contributor against an open question on Copilot revenue conversion. | May 2026: DoD signed agreements with eight firms including Microsoft to deploy frontier AI on classified networks at IL6 and IL7. Microsoft is one of four JWCC providers sharing an estimated $10.5B of FY2026 AI-specific cloud spend. A securities fraud class action was filed following a roughly 10% s |
| 2026-08-05 | 60 | +33 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Certification to run frontier models on DoD classified networks and a share of the roughly $10.5B FY2026 JWCC AI workload is a real but immaterial contributor against an open question on Copilot revenue conversion. | May 2026: DoD signed agreements with eight firms including Microsoft to deploy frontier AI on classified networks at IL6 and IL7. Microsoft is one of four JWCC providers sharing an estimated $10.5B of FY2026 AI-specific cloud spend. A securities fraud class action was filed following a roughly 10% s |
| 2026-07-29 | 27 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 30 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 30 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 27 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 33 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 33 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 36 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 33 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 39 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 36 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 27 | +10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 17 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |