Conviction / Precision Effects
MOG-A
Moog Inc.
conviction
Moog makes the precision motors that steer missiles in flight, and missile production in the United States and Europe is being scaled up sharply over the next several years. It just posted record results and raised its outlook, but the shares trade within 5 percent of their all time high.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $410.38 |
| 30-day move | -0.4% |
| Position in 52-week range | 92 |
| From the 52-week high | -4.7% |
| Average daily volume | $135.6M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Precision motion control for missile guidance, satellite positioning, and autonomous vehicle actuation; defense-grade flight control systems.
Standing judgment
At $410.38 it sits 4.7% off the high in the 92nd percentile of its range, so a new position here buys an excellent business at a full price with no margin for a missed quarter. Not currently held; it clears the 70 buy bar on merit but the entry argues for waiting on a pullback rather than initiating at the high.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 78 | +2 | A genuine chokepoint in the munitions ramp posting record results, priced as though everyone already knows it, which caps a strong name inside the 70-84 band. | Q3 FY2026 sales $1.1B up 15%, adjusted EPS $3.72 up 60%, twelve-month backlog up 23% to a record $3.3B, FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised toward $11.65, and management states the largest missile agreements have not yet entered the order book. |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Missile actuation volumes are contracted to step up materially over multiple years and most of that has not yet entered reported backlog, so consensus is anchored to a run rate that is about to move. | FY2026 missile-program revenue guided to roughly $275M, more than 20% above prior year. Moog is the actuator supplier on the PAC-3 MSE seven-year agreement taking annual interceptor output from about 600 to 2,000 units, with a Lockheed award valued over $100M. Management called US and European defen |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Missile actuation volumes are contracted to step up materially over multiple years and most of that has not yet entered reported backlog, so consensus is anchored to a run rate that is about to move. | FY2026 missile-program revenue guided to roughly $275M, more than 20% above prior year. Moog is the actuator supplier on the PAC-3 MSE seven-year agreement taking annual interceptor output from about 600 to 2,000 units, with a Lockheed award valued over $100M. Management called US and European defen |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | -4 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Missile actuation volumes are contracted to step up materially over multiple years and most of that has not yet entered reported backlog, so consensus is anchored to a run rate that is about to move. | FY2026 missile-program revenue guided to roughly $275M, more than 20% above prior year. Moog is the actuator supplier on the PAC-3 MSE seven-year agreement taking annual interceptor output from about 600 to 2,000 units, with a Lockheed award valued over $100M. Management called US and European defen |
| 2026-07-29 | 80 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 78 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 69 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 73 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 76 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 73 | -5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 78 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 80 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 78 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 78 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 73 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 73 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |