Conviction / Primes and Integrators
LMT
Lockheed Martin Corporation
conviction
Lockheed Martin just posted a record 230 billion dollar order book, driven by missile defense contracts, and raised its outlook for the year. At the same time the Air Force awarded its first production contracts for autonomous fighter drones to two newer companies instead of Lockheed, which is the shift this portfolio is built around.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $581.19 |
| 30-day move | +8.6% |
| Position in 52-week range | 59 |
| From the 52-week high | -16.0% |
| Average daily volume | $733.4M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
F-35 production backbone, hypersonics portfolio, and AMD-A2 autonomous missile defense; largest defense prime by revenue.
Standing judgment
Lockheed is the archetype of the exquisite manned platform the thesis says loses share, and it lost the CCA Increment 1 production award outright to Anduril and General Atomics, but its missile franchise is squarely inside the mass-fires layer. The operating results are the best in the group: record $230B backlog, a 3.2:1 book-to-bill, a $35B THAAD multiyear and $53.9B in PAC-3 work, with F-35 held at 156 aircraft per year. The stock is still 15% below its high, so the equity is cheap relative to the numbers even though the strategic direction runs against the fund.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 60 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record bookings and a raised outlook argue for a constructive stance on the shares, while the loss of the drone wingman socket argues against giving Lockheed a seat in this book. | Q2 2026 sales $20.1B, +11% y/y, EPS $7.94; backlog $230B, +$64B y/y, book-to-bill 3.2:1; $35B THAAD multiyear; $53.9B PAC-3 deal; FY26 guidance raised to $79.75-81.75B sales and $7.0-7.2B FCF; F-35 rate held at 156/yr; June 2026 CCA Increment 1 production for the first 150 aircraft went to Anduril ( |
| 2026-08-05 | 60 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record bookings and a raised outlook argue for a constructive stance on the shares, while the loss of the drone wingman socket argues against giving Lockheed a seat in this book. | Q2 2026 sales $20.1B, +11% y/y, EPS $7.94; backlog $230B, +$64B y/y, book-to-bill 3.2:1; $35B THAAD multiyear; $53.9B PAC-3 deal; FY26 guidance raised to $79.75-81.75B sales and $7.0-7.2B FCF; F-35 rate held at 156/yr; June 2026 CCA Increment 1 production for the first 150 aircraft went to Anduril ( |
| 2026-08-05 | 60 | -29 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record bookings and a raised outlook argue for a constructive stance on the shares, while the loss of the drone wingman socket argues against giving Lockheed a seat in this book. | Q2 2026 sales $20.1B, +11% y/y, EPS $7.94; backlog $230B, +$64B y/y, book-to-bill 3.2:1; $35B THAAD multiyear; $53.9B PAC-3 deal; FY26 guidance raised to $79.75-81.75B sales and $7.0-7.2B FCF; F-35 rate held at 156/yr; June 2026 CCA Increment 1 production for the first 150 aircraft went to Anduril ( |
| 2026-07-29 | 89 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 80 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 80 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 82 | +15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 67 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 69 | +19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 50 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 52 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 52 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 50 | -15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 65 | -17 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 82 | +17 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |