Conviction / Primes and Integrators
LHX
L3Harris Technologies
conviction · held at 4.3%
L3Harris makes military radios, sensors and rocket motors, and it supplies nearly every large defense contractor rather than competing with all of them. It beat expectations and raised its forecast in late July, but the shares fell because a planned spin off of its missile business was delayed to 2027.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $284.96 |
| 30-day move | -3.5% |
| Position in 52-week range | 19 |
| From the 52-week high | -24.9% |
| Average daily volume | $439.3M |
| Weight in the book | 4.3% |
| Since last rebalance | -3.3% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Communications, ISR, and electronic warfare systems; jam-resistant comms and alternative PNT critical for autonomous operations in denied environments.
Standing judgment
At $284.96 the stock is 25% off its high and in the 19th percentile of its range after falling on a beat, because the IPO delay removed a catalyst without touching the asset. That is a good business trading at a discount to its own raised guidance, with the re-rating pushed out roughly a year.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 82 | +8 | Beat, raise and a $42B backlog against a stock in the bottom fifth of its range is as good as the risk-reward gets in the primes, but a merchant supplier is one layer removed from thesis-central so it tops out in the 70-84 band. | Q2 2026 revenue $5.9B and EPS $3.13 beat consensus by 1.6% and 11.8%; FY2026 guidance raised to $23.2B-$23.7B revenue and $11.80-$12.00 EPS; backlog $42B with international mix at 23%; a $1B Department of War investment into the missile unit. The Missile Solutions IPO was pushed from 2026 to mid-202 |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A raised full-year outlook and a 60% increase in missile deliveries were met with a 24% drawdown driven by an IPO delay rather than by operations, which is a timing dislocation rather than a thesis problem. | Q2 2026 revenue $5.88B vs $5.43B, EPS $3.13 (beat by ~12%); FY26 revenue guide raised $200M to $23.2-23.7B, EPS raised $0.40 to $11.80-12.00, FCF held at $3B; backlog $42B, up over $1B sequentially; $12B THAAD/PAC-3 framework with Lockheed; Aerojet deliveries up 60% since acquisition with 60 new bui |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A raised full-year outlook and a 60% increase in missile deliveries were met with a 24% drawdown driven by an IPO delay rather than by operations, which is a timing dislocation rather than a thesis problem. | Q2 2026 revenue $5.88B vs $5.43B, EPS $3.13 (beat by ~12%); FY26 revenue guide raised $200M to $23.2-23.7B, EPS raised $0.40 to $11.80-12.00, FCF held at $3B; backlog $42B, up over $1B sequentially; $12B THAAD/PAC-3 framework with Lockheed; Aerojet deliveries up 60% since acquisition with 60 new bui |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | -18 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A raised full-year outlook and a 60% increase in missile deliveries were met with a 24% drawdown driven by an IPO delay rather than by operations, which is a timing dislocation rather than a thesis problem. | Q2 2026 revenue $5.88B vs $5.43B, EPS $3.13 (beat by ~12%); FY26 revenue guide raised $200M to $23.2-23.7B, EPS raised $0.40 to $11.80-12.00, FCF held at $3B; backlog $42B, up over $1B sequentially; $12B THAAD/PAC-3 framework with Lockheed; Aerojet deliveries up 60% since acquisition with 60 new bui |
| 2026-07-29 | 92 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 89 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 93 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 92 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 86 | -5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 91 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 88 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 86 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 86 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 86 | -8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 94 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 93 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |