Conviction / Autonomy Software
LDOS
Leidos Holdings
conviction
Leidos is winning defense work faster than it can deliver it, booking more than two dollars of new orders for every dollar of revenue in its defense unit. The shares are down more than a third because a government health program suspended payments, a problem in a completely separate part of the company.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $128.74 |
| 30-day move | +18.6% |
| Position in 52-week range | 28 |
| From the 52-week high | -37.4% |
| Average daily volume | $200.5M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Mission AI integration across DoD programs; largest pure-play defense IT contractor with deep autonomous systems portfolio.
Standing judgment
Leidos owns real uncrewed surface vessel, maritime autonomy and counter-drone programs, which sit squarely inside the thesis, but they are a minority of a diversified federal services company that the thesis could proceed without. A 2.2 book-to-bill in Defense against a stock 37% below its 52 week high is a wide gap, and the gap exists because of a health services problem that has nothing to do with the defense franchise.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 68 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The Defense segment is accelerating with a 2.2 quarterly and 1.9 trailing book-to-bill on munitions, unmanned surface vessels and space payloads, while the entire share price decline is attributable to a VA payment suspension in an unrelated segment. | Q2 2026 (reported 2026-08-04): record revenue, full-year revenue, EPS and operating cash flow guidance all raised (revenue midpoint +$100M, EPS midpoint +$0.05, OCF +$50M). Defense book-to-bill 2.2 in the quarter, 1.9 trailing twelve months; management guides Defense to high single digit growth for |
| 2026-08-05 | 68 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The Defense segment is accelerating with a 2.2 quarterly and 1.9 trailing book-to-bill on munitions, unmanned surface vessels and space payloads, while the entire share price decline is attributable to a VA payment suspension in an unrelated segment. | Q2 2026 (reported 2026-08-04): record revenue, full-year revenue, EPS and operating cash flow guidance all raised (revenue midpoint +$100M, EPS midpoint +$0.05, OCF +$50M). Defense book-to-bill 2.2 in the quarter, 1.9 trailing twelve months; management guides Defense to high single digit growth for |
| 2026-08-05 | 68 | +38 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The Defense segment is accelerating with a 2.2 quarterly and 1.9 trailing book-to-bill on munitions, unmanned surface vessels and space payloads, while the entire share price decline is attributable to a VA payment suspension in an unrelated segment. | Q2 2026 (reported 2026-08-04): record revenue, full-year revenue, EPS and operating cash flow guidance all raised (revenue midpoint +$100M, EPS midpoint +$0.05, OCF +$50M). Defense book-to-bill 2.2 in the quarter, 1.9 trailing twelve months; management guides Defense to high single digit growth for |
| 2026-07-29 | 30 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 39 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 43 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 43 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 46 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 50 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 52 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 43 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 46 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 43 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 52 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 43 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |