Conviction / Uncrewed Platforms
JOBY
Joby Aviation
conviction
Joby is building a piloted electric air taxi and plans to start carrying paying passengers in Dubai before the end of this year, with revenue guided to roughly $110 million. Its military work is a small demonstration contract for moving people and cargo, which is a very different business from the autonomous drones this fund is built around.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $7.88 |
| 30-day move | -3.0% |
| Position in 52-week range | 9 |
| From the 52-week high | -60.7% |
| Average daily volume | $370.9M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Edwards AFB delivery for Agility Prime; eVTOL platform positioned for military logistics, ISR, and personnel transport.
Standing judgment
Joby's aircraft is a piloted commercial air taxi and its defense work is logistics and medical evacuation demonstration rather than autonomous or attritable mass, which places it outside Conviction 2 almost entirely. Down 60.6 percent to $7.91 with 2026 revenue guided to only $105M to $115M, most of which depends on launching paid passenger service in Dubai in the back half of the year and on the legacy 2023 Air Force contract. The binding events are FAA type certification and a foreign regulator, neither of which is a defense procurement catalyst.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 42 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The near-term value driver is a commercial air taxi launch subject to Dubai regulatory clearance and FAA certification progress, which is a different risk and a different thesis than defense autonomy, and the equity carries certification risk without defense revenue to offset it. | 2026 revenue guidance $105M to $115M. $131M US Air Force contract signed in 2023 with aircraft delivered to Edwards Air Force Base and government mission demonstrations scheduled for 2026. First FAA-conforming aircraft flew 2026-03-11, opening the path to Type Inspection Authorization testing later |
| 2026-08-05 | 42 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The near-term value driver is a commercial air taxi launch subject to Dubai regulatory clearance and FAA certification progress, which is a different risk and a different thesis than defense autonomy, and the equity carries certification risk without defense revenue to offset it. | 2026 revenue guidance $105M to $115M. $131M US Air Force contract signed in 2023 with aircraft delivered to Edwards Air Force Base and government mission demonstrations scheduled for 2026. First FAA-conforming aircraft flew 2026-03-11, opening the path to Type Inspection Authorization testing later |
| 2026-08-05 | 42 | +41 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The near-term value driver is a commercial air taxi launch subject to Dubai regulatory clearance and FAA certification progress, which is a different risk and a different thesis than defense autonomy, and the equity carries certification risk without defense revenue to offset it. | 2026 revenue guidance $105M to $115M. $131M US Air Force contract signed in 2023 with aircraft delivered to Edwards Air Force Base and government mission demonstrations scheduled for 2026. First FAA-conforming aircraft flew 2026-03-11, opening the path to Type Inspection Authorization testing later |
| 2026-07-29 | 1 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 4 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 1 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 1 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 1 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 1 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 1 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 1 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 14 | +13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 1 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 1 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 1 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |