Conviction / Sensing and Space ISR
IRDM
Iridium Communications
conviction
Iridium runs a global satellite communications network used by militaries, ships and aircraft, and in June it agreed to be bought by Rocket Lab for fifty four dollars a share in cash and stock. The deal is not expected to close until 2027, so owning it now is mostly a bet on that deal completing rather than on the business itself.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $49.15 |
| 30-day move | -3.8% |
| Position in 52-week range | 81 |
| From the 52-week high | -14.0% |
| Average daily volume | $116.9M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
L-band satellite constellation providing global BLOS comms for autonomous platforms; sole provider of DoD EMSS satellite airtime.
Standing judgment
Iridium's L-band global network is genuinely useful comms infrastructure for the thesis, but since the 29 June acquisition agreement the equity no longer expresses that asset independently, it expresses a deal. At $49.37 against $54 of announced consideration the gross spread is roughly nine percent to a mid-2027 close, and only $27 of that is cash. The rest is Rocket Lab stock inside a $67.50 to $112.50 collar, so half the return is a levered bet on Rocket Lab with an eighteen-month lockup. That is a merger-arbitrage position, and this is not a merger-arbitrage fund.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 52 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The upside is now defined and capped by deal terms rather than by the business, and the stock component means the residual risk is Rocket Lab risk that the fund can take more directly by owning Rocket Lab. | 29 Jun 2026: Rocket Lab agreed to acquire Iridium for $54/share, $27.00 in cash plus stock at an exchange ratio collared between $67.50 and $112.50, ~$8.0B enterprise value, close expected mid-2027 subject to Iridium shareholder and regulatory approval. Current price $49.37, 13.7% off 52-week high, |
| 2026-08-05 | 52 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The upside is now defined and capped by deal terms rather than by the business, and the stock component means the residual risk is Rocket Lab risk that the fund can take more directly by owning Rocket Lab. | 29 Jun 2026: Rocket Lab agreed to acquire Iridium for $54/share, $27.00 in cash plus stock at an exchange ratio collared between $67.50 and $112.50, ~$8.0B enterprise value, close expected mid-2027 subject to Iridium shareholder and regulatory approval. Current price $49.37, 13.7% off 52-week high, |
| 2026-08-05 | 52 | -2 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The upside is now defined and capped by deal terms rather than by the business, and the stock component means the residual risk is Rocket Lab risk that the fund can take more directly by owning Rocket Lab. | 29 Jun 2026: Rocket Lab agreed to acquire Iridium for $54/share, $27.00 in cash plus stock at an exchange ratio collared between $67.50 and $112.50, ~$8.0B enterprise value, close expected mid-2027 subject to Iridium shareholder and regulatory approval. Current price $49.37, 13.7% off 52-week high, |
| 2026-07-29 | 54 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 67 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 59 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 59 | -10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 69 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 76 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 71 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 63 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 61 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 65 | -18 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 83 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 90 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |