Conviction / Precision Effects
HXL
Hexcel Corporation
conviction
Hexcel makes the lightweight composite materials used in aircraft structures, and its results rise and fall with how many jets Airbus and Boeing build. Military and space work is a small and slow growing part of the business, and the shares already reflect the commercial recovery.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $104.46 |
| 30-day move | +4.3% |
| Position in 52-week range | 86 |
| From the 52-week high | -6.5% |
| Average daily volume | $118.1M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Advanced carbon fiber composites for military aircraft and autonomous platforms; sole-source supplier for F-35, CH-53K, and next-gen airframes.
Standing judgment
Hexcel's carbon fiber and composites do appear in rocket motor cases and uncrewed airframes, but its economics are set almost entirely by Airbus and Boeing narrowbody and widebody build rates, and there is no autonomy-specific socket it owns. 2026 guidance was raised to sales of $2.025B to $2.125B and adjusted EPS of $2.30 to $2.40 on commercial aerospace strength, yet shares fell after Q2 and the consensus target implies only about 4% upside with the stock around 6% off its high. Little room for error.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 48 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The stock is priced for the commercial aerospace recovery it is already delivering, and the defense growth that would justify a place in this fund is too small to change the earnings trajectory. | 2026 guidance explicitly built on roughly 80 A350 deliveries, A320 family in the low-to-mid 700s, 737 MAX in the mid-400s and 90 to 100 787s. Defense and space ambition is $200M of incremental sales across the remainder of the decade against a base of roughly $2.0B. Q2 2026 beat estimates but shares |
| 2026-08-05 | 48 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The stock is priced for the commercial aerospace recovery it is already delivering, and the defense growth that would justify a place in this fund is too small to change the earnings trajectory. | 2026 guidance explicitly built on roughly 80 A350 deliveries, A320 family in the low-to-mid 700s, 737 MAX in the mid-400s and 90 to 100 787s. Defense and space ambition is $200M of incremental sales across the remainder of the decade against a base of roughly $2.0B. Q2 2026 beat estimates but shares |
| 2026-08-05 | 48 | -1 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The stock is priced for the commercial aerospace recovery it is already delivering, and the defense growth that would justify a place in this fund is too small to change the earnings trajectory. | 2026 guidance explicitly built on roughly 80 A350 deliveries, A320 family in the low-to-mid 700s, 737 MAX in the mid-400s and 90 to 100 787s. Defense and space ambition is $200M of incremental sales across the remainder of the decade against a base of roughly $2.0B. Q2 2026 beat estimates but shares |
| 2026-07-29 | 49 | -5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 54 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 61 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 61 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 59 | +23 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 36 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 39 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 46 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 49 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 46 | +10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 36 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 30 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |