Conviction / Precision Effects
HEI
HEICO Corporation
conviction
HEICO makes replacement parts for commercial airlines and electronic components used in radars, missiles and satellites. The business is performing very well, but the shares are at a record high and the largest and fastest growing part of the company serves airlines rather than the military.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $367.80 |
| 30-day move | +2.7% |
| Position in 52-week range | 98 |
| From the 52-week high | -0.7% |
| Average daily volume | $160.6M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Defense electronics, replacement parts, and flight-critical components; sole-source supplier for military avionics and autonomous platform subsystems.
Standing judgment
HEICO's Electronic Technologies unit does supply RF and microwave components, power conversion and infrared test gear into missile defense, radar and unmanned programs, but these are replaceable subcomponents and the company's center of gravity is commercial airline aftermarket parts. The stock is at an all-time high, essentially 0% off its 52-week high, on a premium multiple, and just issued $1.2B of notes to pay down revolver borrowings used for acquisitions. Excellent business, no visible discount.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 58 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The compounding is real and organic growth is strong, but at an all-time high on a premium multiple the forward return is more likely to equal earnings growth than to beat it, and the fastest-growing segment is airline aftermarket rather than munitions. | FQ1 2026 record net income $190.2M on sales $1.18B. FQ2 2026 record consolidated sales and net income with organic growth of 17% in Electronic Technologies and 19% in Flight Support; Flight Support operating income up 31% and sales up 21% year over year on PMA and DER share gains. Management cites a |
| 2026-08-05 | 58 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The compounding is real and organic growth is strong, but at an all-time high on a premium multiple the forward return is more likely to equal earnings growth than to beat it, and the fastest-growing segment is airline aftermarket rather than munitions. | FQ1 2026 record net income $190.2M on sales $1.18B. FQ2 2026 record consolidated sales and net income with organic growth of 17% in Electronic Technologies and 19% in Flight Support; Flight Support operating income up 31% and sales up 21% year over year on PMA and DER share gains. Management cites a |
| 2026-08-05 | 58 | -11 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The compounding is real and organic growth is strong, but at an all-time high on a premium multiple the forward return is more likely to equal earnings growth than to beat it, and the fastest-growing segment is airline aftermarket rather than munitions. | FQ1 2026 record net income $190.2M on sales $1.18B. FQ2 2026 record consolidated sales and net income with organic growth of 17% in Electronic Technologies and 19% in Flight Support; Flight Support operating income up 31% and sales up 21% year over year on PMA and DER share gains. Management cites a |
| 2026-07-29 | 69 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 63 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 54 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 49 | -12 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 61 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 59 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 54 | -5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 59 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 59 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 52 | -15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 67 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 65 | +11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |