Conviction / Primes and Integrators
GE
GE Aerospace
conviction
GE Aerospace makes jet engines and earns most of its money servicing them, and both the commercial and defense sides are growing faster than management expected. It is a high quality business, but its defense propulsion work is a small slice of the whole and the stock is at its highest level of the past year.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $380.48 |
| 30-day move | +3.7% |
| Position in 52-week range | 98 |
| From the 52-week high | -0.7% |
| Average daily volume | $1.6B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Military jet engine monopolist (F110, T700, F414); propulsion systems powering fighter aircraft, helicopters, and autonomous drone platforms.
Standing judgment
GE Aerospace is an engine and aftermarket business whose economics are driven by commercial narrowbody spares, with only a modest defense propulsion tie to the affordable expendable engines that attritable aircraft will need. Defense, Power and Propulsion booked a 1.55x book-to-bill in the first half and FY26 guidance was raised to $7.65-7.85 EPS and $8.9-9.2B free cash flow. The stock is at its 52-week high, which means paying a full price for a business that is mostly not what this fund is about.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 58 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): An outstanding franchise compounding faster than expected, but priced for it and only tangentially exposed to autonomous mass. | Q2 2026 revenue $13.35B, +24% to +31.5% depending on measure; orders +17% with Commercial Engine Services +18% and Defense, Power and Propulsion orders +12%; defense revenue +16%; DPT book-to-bill 1.55x for H1; spare parts revenue +25%; FY26 EPS guide $7.65-7.85, FCF $8.9-9.2B, revenue growth raised |
| 2026-08-05 | 58 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): An outstanding franchise compounding faster than expected, but priced for it and only tangentially exposed to autonomous mass. | Q2 2026 revenue $13.35B, +24% to +31.5% depending on measure; orders +17% with Commercial Engine Services +18% and Defense, Power and Propulsion orders +12%; defense revenue +16%; DPT book-to-bill 1.55x for H1; spare parts revenue +25%; FY26 EPS guide $7.65-7.85, FCF $8.9-9.2B, revenue growth raised |
| 2026-08-05 | 58 | -7 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): An outstanding franchise compounding faster than expected, but priced for it and only tangentially exposed to autonomous mass. | Q2 2026 revenue $13.35B, +24% to +31.5% depending on measure; orders +17% with Commercial Engine Services +18% and Defense, Power and Propulsion orders +12%; defense revenue +16%; DPT book-to-bill 1.55x for H1; spare parts revenue +25%; FY26 EPS guide $7.65-7.85, FCF $8.9-9.2B, revenue growth raised |
| 2026-07-29 | 65 | +16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 49 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 50 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 50 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 50 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 49 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 56 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 54 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 54 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 54 | +24 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 30 | -19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 49 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |