Conviction / Primes and Integrators
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
conviction
General Dynamics makes business jets, armored vehicles, submarines and government IT systems, and it reported a record 136 billion dollar backlog with profits up 14 percent. The businesses are performing well, but almost none of the growth comes from the autonomous and software driven systems this portfolio focuses on.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $382.61 |
| 30-day move | +2.1% |
| Position in 52-week range | 81 |
| From the 52-week high | -4.3% |
| Average daily volume | $461.3M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Land systems (Abrams, Stryker) with autonomous ground vehicle programs; GDIT division brings C4ISR and mission software.
Standing judgment
General Dynamics is business jets, armored vehicles, submarines and IT services, four businesses that are all long-cycle and hardware-defined, with only Mission Systems giving it a small foothold in the thesis through a Golden Dome interceptor slot. Record $136.5B backlog up 32%, combat systems book-to-bill 2.1x on Canadian armored vehicle orders, Gulfstream margins at 14.5%. Solid across the board, but the stock is 3.7% off its high and none of the growth comes from software-defined autonomy.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 55 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Broad-based execution and a record backlog support the shares, but nothing in the mix gives leverage to the shift this fund is trying to own, and the entry price is full. | Q2 2026 revenue $14.1B, +8.1%; EPS $4.24; operating earnings $1.46B, +12%; net earnings +14.4%; backlog $136.5B, +32%, total estimated contract value $186.9B; Gulfstream 41 deliveries (+3 y/y), revenue $3.5B +15.1%, operating earnings +26.6%, ~160 aircraft expected in 2026; combat systems book-to-bi |
| 2026-08-05 | 55 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Broad-based execution and a record backlog support the shares, but nothing in the mix gives leverage to the shift this fund is trying to own, and the entry price is full. | Q2 2026 revenue $14.1B, +8.1%; EPS $4.24; operating earnings $1.46B, +12%; net earnings +14.4%; backlog $136.5B, +32%, total estimated contract value $186.9B; Gulfstream 41 deliveries (+3 y/y), revenue $3.5B +15.1%, operating earnings +26.6%, ~160 aircraft expected in 2026; combat systems book-to-bi |
| 2026-08-05 | 55 | -12 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Broad-based execution and a record backlog support the shares, but nothing in the mix gives leverage to the shift this fund is trying to own, and the entry price is full. | Q2 2026 revenue $14.1B, +8.1%; EPS $4.24; operating earnings $1.46B, +12%; net earnings +14.4%; backlog $136.5B, +32%, total estimated contract value $186.9B; Gulfstream 41 deliveries (+3 y/y), revenue $3.5B +15.1%, operating earnings +26.6%, ~160 aircraft expected in 2026; combat systems book-to-bi |
| 2026-07-29 | 67 | +17 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 50 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 46 | -10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 56 | +13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 43 | -11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 54 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 46 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 49 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 43 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 49 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 49 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 52 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |