Conviction / Primes and Integrators
ESLT
Elbit Systems Ltd.
conviction · held at 9.7%
Elbit builds its own drones, rocket artillery and battlefield software rather than buying those pieces from other firms, which lets it keep more of the profit on every system it sells. Its order book just passed 30 billion dollars for the first time with most of the work now outside Israel, though the shares are expensive against current earnings.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $853.47 |
| 30-day move | +9.7% |
| Position in 52-week range | 72 |
| From the 52-week high | -16.0% |
| Average daily volume | $67.4M |
| Weight in the book | 9.7% |
| Since last rebalance | +8.3% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Israeli defense prime and global UAS leader; Hermes drone family, autonomous ground vehicles, and battle-tested C4ISR deployed across NATO allies.
Standing judgment
At $853.47 it trades near 53x forward and 63-72x trailing earnings while sitting 16% off the high, so the multiple leaves no room for a delivery stumble. Q2 results on 11 Aug 2026 are a near-term binary and the 9.7% thirty-day move has already priced some good news in.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 86 | +12 | Raised 12 points because what changed is the breadth of evidence, not the story: European, Greek and now US border awards prove the vertically integrated model converts backlog across three separate geographies, and on the clarified scale that combination belongs in 85-89 with valuation as the one unresolved leg. | Order backlog a record $30.2B at Q1 2026 with 71% outside Israel and 49% scheduled for delivery across the remainder of 2026 and 2027; $1.4B five-year European modernization award; $750M Greek PULS rocket artillery; over $370M of US Customs and Border Protection awards to Elbit America; Q1 revenue $ |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record backlog with a European mix that is compounding faster than the US budget, held back from a higher number only by an extreme trailing multiple and a binary print in six days. | Q1 2026 revenue $2.19B, +15.5% y/y; backlog $30.2B (first time above $30B), 71% ex-Israel, ~49% to be delivered through 2027; $1.4B European modernization contract announced May 2026; $750M Greece PULS; $370M+ US CBP border awards; Europe 23% of Q1 revenue; TTM P/E ~63-72x; stock -15.1% off 52-week |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record backlog with a European mix that is compounding faster than the US budget, held back from a higher number only by an extreme trailing multiple and a binary print in six days. | Q1 2026 revenue $2.19B, +15.5% y/y; backlog $30.2B (first time above $30B), 71% ex-Israel, ~49% to be delivered through 2027; $1.4B European modernization contract announced May 2026; $750M Greece PULS; $370M+ US CBP border awards; Europe 23% of Q1 revenue; TTM P/E ~63-72x; stock -15.1% off 52-week |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | -22 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record backlog with a European mix that is compounding faster than the US budget, held back from a higher number only by an extreme trailing multiple and a binary print in six days. | Q1 2026 revenue $2.19B, +15.5% y/y; backlog $30.2B (first time above $30B), 71% ex-Israel, ~49% to be delivered through 2027; $1.4B European modernization contract announced May 2026; $750M Greece PULS; $370M+ US CBP border awards; Europe 23% of Q1 revenue; TTM P/E ~63-72x; stock -15.1% off 52-week |
| 2026-07-29 | 96 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 99 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 96 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 97 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 97 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 97 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 97 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 96 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 97 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 96 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 96 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 98 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |