Conviction / Sensing and Space ISR
DRS
Leonardo DRS
conviction · held at 4.8%
Leonardo DRS makes the infrared and electro optical sensors that let missile defense and drone defense systems detect a threat at all. It just posted a record 5.1 billion dollar funded order book, raised its profit outlook, and the shares fell anyway.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $44.67 |
| 30-day move | -1.8% |
| Position in 52-week range | 67 |
| From the 52-week high | -11.7% |
| Average daily volume | $49.2M |
| Weight in the book | 4.8% |
| Since last rebalance | -3.1% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Naval defense electronics, advanced sensors, and infrared countermeasures; electric power and propulsion systems for autonomous naval platforms.
Standing judgment
At $44.67 it is 11.7% off the high and in the 67th percentile of its range, so this is a reasonable entry rather than a dislocation, and the multiple already reflects eighteen quarters of good news. It fell on a beat-and-raise, which is the setup asymmetry worth owning.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 88 | +4 | Thesis-central sensing with the cleanest evidence convergence in the fund, held back from 90+ only because the entry is merely fair rather than dislocated. | Q2 2026 reported 30 Jul: revenue $913M up 10%, adjusted EBITDA up 33%, EPS up 60%, total backlog $8.787B and record funded backlog $5.1B up 17% y/y, book-to-bill 1.2x for the 18th consecutive quarter at or above 1.0, EBITDA and EPS guidance raised. Management confirmed progress on SDA Tracking Layer |
| 2026-08-05 | 84 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record funded backlog and raised profitability guidance on a stock 9.6% off its 52-week high, with the Tranche 3 IR payload subcontract converting Golden Dome from a slogan into booked revenue. | Q2 2026: bookings >$1.1B, book-to-bill 1.2x, funded backlog $5.1B (+17% y/y), 18th straight quarter book-to-bill >=1.0. FY26 guidance: revenue held at $3.9-3.975B (7-9% organic), adjusted EBITDA raised to $525-540M from $515-530M, adjusted EPS raised to $1.34-1.39 from $1.26-1.30. Selected for SDA T |
| 2026-08-05 | 84 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record funded backlog and raised profitability guidance on a stock 9.6% off its 52-week high, with the Tranche 3 IR payload subcontract converting Golden Dome from a slogan into booked revenue. | Q2 2026: bookings >$1.1B, book-to-bill 1.2x, funded backlog $5.1B (+17% y/y), 18th straight quarter book-to-bill >=1.0. FY26 guidance: revenue held at $3.9-3.975B (7-9% organic), adjusted EBITDA raised to $525-540M from $515-530M, adjusted EPS raised to $1.34-1.39 from $1.26-1.30. Selected for SDA T |
| 2026-08-05 | 84 | -1 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record funded backlog and raised profitability guidance on a stock 9.6% off its 52-week high, with the Tranche 3 IR payload subcontract converting Golden Dome from a slogan into booked revenue. | Q2 2026: bookings >$1.1B, book-to-bill 1.2x, funded backlog $5.1B (+17% y/y), 18th straight quarter book-to-bill >=1.0. FY26 guidance: revenue held at $3.9-3.975B (7-9% organic), adjusted EBITDA raised to $525-540M from $515-530M, adjusted EPS raised to $1.34-1.39 from $1.26-1.30. Selected for SDA T |
| 2026-07-29 | 85 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 88 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 84 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 86 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 88 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 88 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 89 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 88 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 88 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 85 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 91 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 94 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |