Conviction / Primes and Integrators
CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
conviction · held at 9.3%
Curtiss Wright makes nuclear propulsion equipment for Navy submarines and rugged computers for military electronics, and orders are running well ahead of sales in both. Most of its growth comes from nuclear work rather than drones or autonomy, and the shares already trade close to their record high.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $753.65 |
| 30-day move | -1.7% |
| Position in 52-week range | 84 |
| From the 52-week high | -6.7% |
| Average daily volume | $179.6M |
| Weight in the book | 9.3% |
| Since last rebalance | -2.4% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Embedded compute and mission processors for defense platforms; naval defense electronics and nuclear propulsion components.
Standing judgment
At $753.65 the stock is 6.7% off an all-time high set in July and sits in the 84th percentile of its range, so the entry demands continued beats. Rugged embedded computing is the only line that serves this fund's thesis and it is a minority of the story.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 58 | -4 | Excellent execution in businesses the thesis does not require, bought at the top of the range, which is the textbook description of constructive but unresolved rather than strong. | Naval and Power book-to-bill 1.5x and Defense Electronics orders up 18% y/y are real, but the growth engine is naval nuclear propulsion and commercial nuclear aftermarket, not autonomy; FY2026 sales guidance raised to 7-8% growth with Aerospace and Defense up 11-13%. Q2 2026 results land 5 Aug 2026, |
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Genuinely improving orders across every segment, but the multiple already discounts the submarine and nuclear ramp and the thesis linkage is thinner than the current 9.3% position weight implies. | Q1 2026: Naval and Power revenue +21% with 1.5x book-to-bill on Virginia and Columbia class propulsion; Defense Electronics orders +18% y/y, ~1.1x book-to-bill; FY26 guidance raised to 7-8% sales growth, Naval Defense growth raised to 6-8% from 5-7%; stock $766, -5.2% off 52-week high; held at 9.26% |
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Genuinely improving orders across every segment, but the multiple already discounts the submarine and nuclear ramp and the thesis linkage is thinner than the current 9.3% position weight implies. | Q1 2026: Naval and Power revenue +21% with 1.5x book-to-bill on Virginia and Columbia class propulsion; Defense Electronics orders +18% y/y, ~1.1x book-to-bill; FY26 guidance raised to 7-8% sales growth, Naval Defense growth raised to 6-8% from 5-7%; stock $766, -5.2% off 52-week high; held at 9.26% |
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | -29 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Genuinely improving orders across every segment, but the multiple already discounts the submarine and nuclear ramp and the thesis linkage is thinner than the current 9.3% position weight implies. | Q1 2026: Naval and Power revenue +21% with 1.5x book-to-bill on Virginia and Columbia class propulsion; Defense Electronics orders +18% y/y, ~1.1x book-to-bill; FY26 guidance raised to 7-8% sales growth, Naval Defense growth raised to 6-8% from 5-7%; stock $766, -5.2% off 52-week high; held at 9.26% |
| 2026-07-29 | 91 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 94 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 90 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 89 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 93 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 94 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 91 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 94 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 94 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 94 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 93 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 91 | +11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |