Conviction / Autonomy Software
CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings
conviction
CrowdStrike secures Pentagon networks and has expanded its government cloud offering, which is real business but is defensive software rather than the autonomy technology this portfolio is built around. The shares sit at their high, so a lot of good news is already reflected.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $212.93 |
| 30-day move | +9.4% |
| Position in 52-week range | 97 |
| From the 52-week high | -2.1% |
| Average daily volume | $2.0B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
FedRAMP-authorized endpoint security across DoD; Falcon platform protecting autonomous systems infrastructure from cyber threats.
Standing judgment
CrowdStrike protects the networks that autonomy software runs on and holds IL5 authorization with an expanded GovCloud, but securing the stack is not building the stack and the thesis proceeds unchanged without it. Essentially at its 52 week high with a premium multiple, so the forward return depends on continued flawless execution rather than on any repricing.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 55 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Strong platform execution and expanding federal footprint, but a full valuation within 2% of the 52 week high leaves limited room for the forward return this fund is looking for. | IL5 provisional authorization from DoD; March 2026 expansion of GovCloud brought agentic automation, proactive threat defense and unified IT and OT protection into its FedRAMP High environment. Serves DoD, the Defense Industrial Base and CISA. Trading 1.5% below its 52 week high. |
| 2026-08-05 | 55 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Strong platform execution and expanding federal footprint, but a full valuation within 2% of the 52 week high leaves limited room for the forward return this fund is looking for. | IL5 provisional authorization from DoD; March 2026 expansion of GovCloud brought agentic automation, proactive threat defense and unified IT and OT protection into its FedRAMP High environment. Serves DoD, the Defense Industrial Base and CISA. Trading 1.5% below its 52 week high. |
| 2026-08-05 | 55 | +5 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Strong platform execution and expanding federal footprint, but a full valuation within 2% of the 52 week high leaves limited room for the forward return this fund is looking for. | IL5 provisional authorization from DoD; March 2026 expansion of GovCloud brought agentic automation, proactive threat defense and unified IT and OT protection into its FedRAMP High environment. Serves DoD, the Defense Industrial Base and CISA. Trading 1.5% below its 52 week high. |
| 2026-07-29 | 50 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 56 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 56 | -20 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 76 | +24 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 52 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 52 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 59 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 56 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 56 | -24 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 80 | -12 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 92 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 92 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |