Conviction / Autonomy Software
CACI
CACI International
conviction
CACI won a 500 million dollar counter drone contract using hardware it owns rather than labor it resells, and that system is now moving into full rate production. Its funded backlog is up 19 percent and the shares have already pulled back about a quarter from their high.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $517.90 |
| 30-day move | +4.1% |
| Position in 52-week range | 33 |
| From the 52-week high | -24.2% |
| Average daily volume | $138.5M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Signals intelligence, electronic warfare, and cyber operations; SIGINT collection and processing systems for IC and DoD autonomous programs.
Standing judgment
At $517.89 it has given back 24% from the high and sits in the 33rd percentile of its range after a very large run, so business momentum and a reset price line up reasonably well. Over 90% of revenue is still tied to US government contracting cycles, which is the cap on how central this can ever be.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 75 | +5 | SkyValor moving into full-rate production converts CACI-owned counter-drone technology from a talking point into a product line, which is worth a raise, but a services-majority revenue base keeps it out of the thesis-central bands. | $500M three-year counter-UAS IDIQ from Joint Interagency Task Force 401 awarded late July 2026 with SkyValor as first task order, following successful evaluation at MCAS Yuma and selection for southern border drone defense; funded backlog up 19%; FY2026 revenue guidance raised to $9.5B-$9.6B. |
| 2026-08-05 | 70 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): CACI won a three year $500M counter-UAS IDIQ with its own SkyValor system selected as the first task order for JIATF-401, placing it directly inside the fastest growing autonomy-adjacent budget line rather than in the shrinking advisory line. | 2026-07-30: $500M C-UAS IDIQ awarded, SkyValor selected as first task order for JIATF-401's Domestic Shield. Q3 FY26: revenue $2.4B, +8.5% y/y; EBITDA $289.7M; $2.2B of contract awards; total backlog $33.4B, +6.4% y/y; funded backlog +19% to $5.0B; FY26 revenue guidance raised to $9.5B to $9.6B from |
| 2026-08-05 | 70 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): CACI won a three year $500M counter-UAS IDIQ with its own SkyValor system selected as the first task order for JIATF-401, placing it directly inside the fastest growing autonomy-adjacent budget line rather than in the shrinking advisory line. | 2026-07-30: $500M C-UAS IDIQ awarded, SkyValor selected as first task order for JIATF-401's Domestic Shield. Q3 FY26: revenue $2.4B, +8.5% y/y; EBITDA $289.7M; $2.2B of contract awards; total backlog $33.4B, +6.4% y/y; funded backlog +19% to $5.0B; FY26 revenue guidance raised to $9.5B to $9.6B from |
| 2026-08-05 | 70 | -27 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): CACI won a three year $500M counter-UAS IDIQ with its own SkyValor system selected as the first task order for JIATF-401, placing it directly inside the fastest growing autonomy-adjacent budget line rather than in the shrinking advisory line. | 2026-07-30: $500M C-UAS IDIQ awarded, SkyValor selected as first task order for JIATF-401's Domestic Shield. Q3 FY26: revenue $2.4B, +8.5% y/y; EBITDA $289.7M; $2.2B of contract awards; total backlog $33.4B, +6.4% y/y; funded backlog +19% to $5.0B; FY26 revenue guidance raised to $9.5B to $9.6B from |
| 2026-07-29 | 97 | +14 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 83 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 82 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 83 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 84 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 83 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 80 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 83 | +16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 67 | -15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 82 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 78 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 76 | -10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |