Conviction / Precision Effects
BWXT
BWX Technologies
conviction
BWX Technologies builds the nuclear reactors that power US submarines and aircraft carriers, and is expanding into small reactors and advanced fuels. Orders are growing far faster than the share price, though this is fundamentally a shipbuilding and power business rather than a weapons or autonomy business.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $170.10 |
| 30-day move | -8.6% |
| Position in 52-week range | 15 |
| From the 52-week high | -29.7% |
| Average daily volume | $163.8M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Nuclear propulsion for Navy submarines and carriers; microreactor technology for forward-deployed autonomous systems power.
Standing judgment
BWXT is the sole-source naval nuclear propulsion and fuel supplier, which is essential to the US Navy but is the exquisite manned-platform world this fund's thesis says value is moving away from, not precision effects. Backlog reached $8.4B, up 40% year over year with trailing book-to-bill of 1.7x, guidance raised to $650M to $665M adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow of $345M to $360M, while the stock trades about 29% below its 52-week high. Fundamentals and price have moved in opposite directions.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A 40% backlog increase against a 29% drawdown means the market has de-rated a business whose contracted revenue visibility just extended through 2030. | Q2 2026 revenue $901.6M up 18%, GAAP EPS $0.97, adjusted EBITDA $155.5M. Backlog $8.4B including $6.8B Government Operations, with over $1.4B of new Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program awards extending work to 2030 and roughly 55% of backlog converting to revenue by end-2027. Medical business divested |
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A 40% backlog increase against a 29% drawdown means the market has de-rated a business whose contracted revenue visibility just extended through 2030. | Q2 2026 revenue $901.6M up 18%, GAAP EPS $0.97, adjusted EBITDA $155.5M. Backlog $8.4B including $6.8B Government Operations, with over $1.4B of new Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program awards extending work to 2030 and roughly 55% of backlog converting to revenue by end-2027. Medical business divested |
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | +7 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A 40% backlog increase against a 29% drawdown means the market has de-rated a business whose contracted revenue visibility just extended through 2030. | Q2 2026 revenue $901.6M up 18%, GAAP EPS $0.97, adjusted EBITDA $155.5M. Backlog $8.4B including $6.8B Government Operations, with over $1.4B of new Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program awards extending work to 2030 and roughly 55% of backlog converting to revenue by end-2027. Medical business divested |
| 2026-07-29 | 59 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 52 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 49 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 52 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 54 | -11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 65 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 65 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 69 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 69 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 71 | +21 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 50 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 50 | +14 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |