Conviction / Sensing and Space ISR
BKSY
BlackSky Technology
conviction
BlackSky operates satellites that photograph the same locations many times a day and sells that to intelligence agencies, and its newer higher resolution satellites are now fully in service with a growing government contract behind them. It is still a small company that funds itself with debt and share issuance, which limits how large a position it can support.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $24.93 |
| 30-day move | -2.1% |
| Position in 52-week range | 31 |
| From the 52-week high | -52.9% |
| Average daily volume | $32.8M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Real-time geospatial intelligence constellation with NRO and Army contracts; AI-powered satellite tasking for autonomous ISR.
Standing judgment
BlackSky supplies high-revisit tactical imagery and is one of three companies on the NRO's electro-optical commercial layer, which is real thesis content, but its coverage overlaps Planet and Maxar and the government explicitly buys the capability from multiple vendors, so no single one of them is a bottleneck. Gen-3 is now operational and the NRO AROS award has been expanded past $150M, so the business inflection is genuine. It is still a roughly $20M-per-quarter revenue company carrying 8.25% convertible notes and a $250M equity shelf, which is why it is a small position or none rather than a core one. Q2 results land 6 August.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Gen-3 has moved from promise to operational capacity with contract wins attached, but the funding structure and the thin revenue base cap how much of that can be underwritten today. | 2026 revenue guidance $130-150M with subscription growth above 50% driven by Gen-3; up to $160M in new contract wins reported; Q1 2026 revenue $20.8M; NRO AROS contract modification expanded to over $150M in late June 2026 funding a multi-spectral broad-area mapping spacecraft targeted for 2028. Cap |
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Gen-3 has moved from promise to operational capacity with contract wins attached, but the funding structure and the thin revenue base cap how much of that can be underwritten today. | 2026 revenue guidance $130-150M with subscription growth above 50% driven by Gen-3; up to $160M in new contract wins reported; Q1 2026 revenue $20.8M; NRO AROS contract modification expanded to over $150M in late June 2026 funding a multi-spectral broad-area mapping spacecraft targeted for 2028. Cap |
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | +45 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Gen-3 has moved from promise to operational capacity with contract wins attached, but the funding structure and the thin revenue base cap how much of that can be underwritten today. | 2026 revenue guidance $130-150M with subscription growth above 50% driven by Gen-3; up to $160M in new contract wins reported; Q1 2026 revenue $20.8M; NRO AROS contract modification expanded to over $150M in late June 2026 funding a multi-spectral broad-area mapping spacecraft targeted for 2028. Cap |
| 2026-07-29 | 17 | -67 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 84 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 85 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 84 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 83 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 84 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 82 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 84 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 84 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 84 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 84 | +13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 71 | -14 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |