Conviction / Autonomy Software
BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings
conviction
BigBear.ai grew revenue 13 percent and won more than twenty new contracts, but its order backlog shrank compared with the prior quarter. The company also doubled the number of shares it is allowed to issue, which means existing shareholders own less of each dollar of that growth.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $3.02 |
| 30-day move | -12.0% |
| Position in 52-week range | 6 |
| From the 52-week high | -67.8% |
| Average daily volume | $82.6M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
AI-powered decision intelligence for Army and Navy; autonomous analytics platform for force protection and logistics optimization.
Standing judgment
BigBear.ai works in the right place, decision support and ISR software for national security, but it is subscale and nothing in the thesis depends on it; its Army program volumes are declining even as total revenue grows. Down 68% from its high with revenue growing 13% and margins expanding, but backlog fell sequentially and the company has authorised a doubling of its share count.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 42 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Backlog declined sequentially in Q2 while the company doubled authorised shares to one billion and agreed to sell up to 100 million shares, so dilution is funding the growth rather than the business funding itself. | Q2 2026 (2026-07-30): revenue $36.75M, +13% y/y; 20+ new contract wins; margins expanded; FY2026 guidance affirmed at $135M to $165M. Backlog $269.6M, up 9% since 2025-12-31 but down from $281.9M at Q1. Q1 2026 revenue $34.4M was roughly flat year over year as Ask Sage growth offset lower Army progr |
| 2026-08-05 | 42 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Backlog declined sequentially in Q2 while the company doubled authorised shares to one billion and agreed to sell up to 100 million shares, so dilution is funding the growth rather than the business funding itself. | Q2 2026 (2026-07-30): revenue $36.75M, +13% y/y; 20+ new contract wins; margins expanded; FY2026 guidance affirmed at $135M to $165M. Backlog $269.6M, up 9% since 2025-12-31 but down from $281.9M at Q1. Q1 2026 revenue $34.4M was roughly flat year over year as Ask Sage growth offset lower Army progr |
| 2026-08-05 | 42 | +9 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Backlog declined sequentially in Q2 while the company doubled authorised shares to one billion and agreed to sell up to 100 million shares, so dilution is funding the growth rather than the business funding itself. | Q2 2026 (2026-07-30): revenue $36.75M, +13% y/y; 20+ new contract wins; margins expanded; FY2026 guidance affirmed at $135M to $165M. Backlog $269.6M, up 9% since 2025-12-31 but down from $281.9M at Q1. Q1 2026 revenue $34.4M was roughly flat year over year as Ask Sage growth offset lower Army progr |
| 2026-07-29 | 33 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 36 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 33 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 36 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 36 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 43 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 43 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 39 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 36 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 39 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 43 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 36 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |