Conviction / Autonomy Software
BAH
Booz Allen Hamilton
conviction
Booz Allen's revenue is falling and it has cut thousands of jobs as government agencies stop buying consulting hours. The Pentagon has named the firm directly in memos terminating advisory contracts, which makes this a problem with the business model rather than a temporary slowdown.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $72.25 |
| 30-day move | +14.1% |
| Position in 52-week range | 23 |
| From the 52-week high | -36.9% |
| Average daily volume | $180.7M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Cleared AI consulting for intelligence community and DoD; building autonomous analytics and decision-support pipelines.
Standing judgment
Booz Allen sells consulting hours to the government, and the government has explicitly targeted consulting hours for elimination, so it is peripheral to a thesis about software that replaces labor rather than bills for it. Cheap at 36% below its high with a national security segment still growing mid single digits, but the revenue line is shrinking and the business model is the thing being cut.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 50 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Revenue is declining, the civil segment is in a low twenties percent decline, and Hegseth's contract termination memo named Booz Allen consulting work directly, so the pressure is structural rather than cyclical. | Q2 FY2026: revenue down 8.1% year over year to $2.9B; guidance cut to $11.2B to $11.7B; civil revenue guided to a low twenties percent decline and described as the most challenging market in a generation. A 7% workforce cut announced May 2025 was followed by further cuts; headcount roughly 33,000 wi |
| 2026-08-05 | 50 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Revenue is declining, the civil segment is in a low twenties percent decline, and Hegseth's contract termination memo named Booz Allen consulting work directly, so the pressure is structural rather than cyclical. | Q2 FY2026: revenue down 8.1% year over year to $2.9B; guidance cut to $11.2B to $11.7B; civil revenue guided to a low twenties percent decline and described as the most challenging market in a generation. A 7% workforce cut announced May 2025 was followed by further cuts; headcount roughly 33,000 wi |
| 2026-08-05 | 50 | -21 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Revenue is declining, the civil segment is in a low twenties percent decline, and Hegseth's contract termination memo named Booz Allen consulting work directly, so the pressure is structural rather than cyclical. | Q2 FY2026: revenue down 8.1% year over year to $2.9B; guidance cut to $11.2B to $11.7B; civil revenue guided to a low twenties percent decline and described as the most challenging market in a generation. A 7% workforce cut announced May 2025 was followed by further cuts; headcount roughly 33,000 wi |
| 2026-07-29 | 71 | +48 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 23 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 17 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 30 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 23 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 27 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 27 | +13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 14 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 17 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 11 | -22 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 33 | +10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 23 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |