Conviction / Primes and Integrators
BA
The Boeing Company
conviction
Boeing's defense unit lost money last quarter after another 280 million dollar charge on the delayed Air Force One program, bringing total losses on that contract above 2.8 billion dollars. Its commercial airplane business is recovering and generating cash, but that is not what this portfolio is designed to own.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $238.61 |
| 30-day move | +3.0% |
| Position in 52-week range | 80 |
| From the 52-week high | -6.2% |
| Average daily volume | $1.4B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone, Loyal Wingman (Ghost Bat), and autonomous refueling programs across Navy and Air Force.
Standing judgment
Boeing Defense is the clearest live demonstration of the thesis's prediction that legacy primes destroy value on fixed-price development work, and the company's actual investment case is a commercial narrowbody recovery that has nothing to do with autonomous warfare. The defense segment swung to a $15M operating loss in Q2 2026 from a $110M profit a year earlier, driven by a further $280M Air Force One charge that takes cumulative VC-25B losses past $2.8B. The commercial turnaround is genuine, with 737 output at 47 per month and positive free cash flow, but that is a different fund's trade.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 45 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Defense is loss-making with an open fixed-price wound, and the part of Boeing that is working is commercial aerospace, so there is little forward return here attributable to this thesis. | Q2 2026 net loss $428M (-$0.67/sh); Defense, Space and Security operating loss $15M vs $110M profit a year earlier; $280M VC-25B charge in the quarter, cumulative program losses now above $2.8B, first delivery still guided to 2028; free cash flow $631M positive; 737 production transitioned to 47/mon |
| 2026-08-05 | 45 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Defense is loss-making with an open fixed-price wound, and the part of Boeing that is working is commercial aerospace, so there is little forward return here attributable to this thesis. | Q2 2026 net loss $428M (-$0.67/sh); Defense, Space and Security operating loss $15M vs $110M profit a year earlier; $280M VC-25B charge in the quarter, cumulative program losses now above $2.8B, first delivery still guided to 2028; free cash flow $631M positive; 737 production transitioned to 47/mon |
| 2026-08-05 | 45 | +9 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Defense is loss-making with an open fixed-price wound, and the part of Boeing that is working is commercial aerospace, so there is little forward return here attributable to this thesis. | Q2 2026 net loss $428M (-$0.67/sh); Defense, Space and Security operating loss $15M vs $110M profit a year earlier; $280M VC-25B charge in the quarter, cumulative program losses now above $2.8B, first delivery still guided to 2028; free cash flow $631M positive; 737 production transitioned to 47/mon |
| 2026-07-29 | 36 | -23 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 59 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 63 | +30 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 33 | -32 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 65 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 56 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 69 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 61 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 63 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 61 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 54 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 56 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |