Conviction / Precision Effects
AXON
Axon Enterprise
conviction
Axon sells stun devices, body cameras and evidence software to police departments, and has added a fast growing counter drone business. The shares have fallen about a third from their high even as revenue keeps growing above thirty percent, but the customer is mostly domestic law enforcement rather than the military.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $596.16 |
| 30-day move | -6.9% |
| Position in 52-week range | 47 |
| From the 52-week high | -32.6% |
| Average daily volume | $572.4M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
AI-powered situational awareness and real-time video analytics; Draft One AI report writing expanding into defense and federal law enforcement.
Standing judgment
Axon is a domestic law enforcement company selling conducted energy weapons, body cameras and evidence software; its Dedrone counter-drone line touches the autonomy fight but faces inward at public safety rather than at the munitions and effects chain this bucket describes. Shares are roughly 32% below their 52-week high while revenue grew 34% in Q1 2026 to $807M and full-year growth guidance was raised to 30% to 32%, so the drawdown is multiple compression rather than deteriorating results. Q2 2026 was released after the close on 2026-08-05, which makes this score provisional until those numbers are read.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 63 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A high-quality compounder still growing above 30% has de-rated by about a third, and counter-drone is compounding far faster than the base business off a small revenue base with new federal funding behind it. | Q1 2026 revenue $807M up 34%, contracted bookings backlog $14.3B, FY2026 growth guidance raised to 30% to 32% with adjusted EBITDA margin target of 25.5%. Counter-drone product revenue up over 300% year over year and Dedrone bookings up roughly 500%; Axon has booked more on Dedrone than it paid for |
| 2026-08-05 | 63 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A high-quality compounder still growing above 30% has de-rated by about a third, and counter-drone is compounding far faster than the base business off a small revenue base with new federal funding behind it. | Q1 2026 revenue $807M up 34%, contracted bookings backlog $14.3B, FY2026 growth guidance raised to 30% to 32% with adjusted EBITDA margin target of 25.5%. Counter-drone product revenue up over 300% year over year and Dedrone bookings up roughly 500%; Axon has booked more on Dedrone than it paid for |
| 2026-08-05 | 63 | +11 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A high-quality compounder still growing above 30% has de-rated by about a third, and counter-drone is compounding far faster than the base business off a small revenue base with new federal funding behind it. | Q1 2026 revenue $807M up 34%, contracted bookings backlog $14.3B, FY2026 growth guidance raised to 30% to 32% with adjusted EBITDA margin target of 25.5%. Counter-drone product revenue up over 300% year over year and Dedrone bookings up roughly 500%; Axon has booked more on Dedrone than it paid for |
| 2026-07-29 | 52 | +25 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 27 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 20 | -19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 39 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 30 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 30 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 30 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 23 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 30 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 33 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 46 | +13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 33 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |