Conviction / Uncrewed Platforms
AVAV
AeroVironment Inc.
conviction · held at 9.2%
AeroVironment makes the small drones, one way attack munitions and counter drone systems the US military buys in the largest numbers, and the 2027 budget request funds those exact lines with more than 70 billion dollars. The stock has fallen roughly 60 percent from its high on a weak profit forecast and an accounting restatement, so the demand picture and the share price are pointing in opposite directions.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $167.77 |
| 30-day move | +3.2% |
| Position in 52-week range | 12 |
| From the 52-week high | -59.9% |
| Average daily volume | $339.0M |
| Weight in the book | 9.2% |
| Since last rebalance | -1.1% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Switchblade loitering munitions and Puma ISR drones proven in Ukraine; dominant in Group 1-3 unmanned systems with direct DoD contracts.
Standing judgment
At $167.77 the stock sits in the 12th percentile of its 52-week range and roughly 60% off the high, which is the best entry this name has offered in two years. Guidance is 45/55 second-half weighted, so the next print is unlikely to be the catalyst and the restatement overhang has to clear first.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 86 | +8 | Thesis-central with a genuinely dislocated entry, but the accounting material weakness and the FY2027 margin guide leave one leg unresolved, which is the definition of the 85-89 band. | Record fully-funded backlog of ~$1.1B with 1.4x book-to-bill; $500M US Army Titan RF counter-UAS IDIQ running through June 2029; FY2027 request puts $74B+ against drones and counter-drone and $54.6B into the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, funding Switchblade, SRR and C-UAS lines directly. Against |
| 2026-08-05 | 78 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record contract awards and a 2.9x book-to-bill are converting into funded backlog faster than the guided revenue line implies, while the equity has derated to roughly 3.8x forward sales. | FY2026 Q4 revenue $641.62M, up 133.3 percent year over year, beating the $563.10M consensus, with BlueHalo and Empirical contributing $282.30M. Funded backlog $1.2B as of 2026-04-30 versus $726.6M a year earlier; unfunded backlog $1,457.7M; record $3.5B contract award ceiling and 2.9x book-to-bill. |
| 2026-08-05 | 78 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record contract awards and a 2.9x book-to-bill are converting into funded backlog faster than the guided revenue line implies, while the equity has derated to roughly 3.8x forward sales. | FY2026 Q4 revenue $641.62M, up 133.3 percent year over year, beating the $563.10M consensus, with BlueHalo and Empirical contributing $282.30M. Funded backlog $1.2B as of 2026-04-30 versus $726.6M a year earlier; unfunded backlog $1,457.7M; record $3.5B contract award ceiling and 2.9x book-to-bill. |
| 2026-08-05 | 78 | -21 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Record contract awards and a 2.9x book-to-bill are converting into funded backlog faster than the guided revenue line implies, while the equity has derated to roughly 3.8x forward sales. | FY2026 Q4 revenue $641.62M, up 133.3 percent year over year, beating the $563.10M consensus, with BlueHalo and Empirical contributing $282.30M. Funded backlog $1.2B as of 2026-04-30 versus $726.6M a year earlier; unfunded backlog $1,457.7M; record $3.5B contract award ceiling and 2.9x book-to-bill. |
| 2026-07-29 | 99 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 96 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 97 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 98 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 98 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 98 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 98 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 98 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 98 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 98 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 97 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 99 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |