Conviction / Autonomy Software
AI
C3.ai Inc.
conviction
C3.ai's revenue nearly halved and the company cut about a third of its workforce while changing chief executives twice. Its government business is growing quickly, but from a base that is shrinking overall, so the turnaround is unproven.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $9.90 |
| 30-day move | +10.8% |
| Position in 52-week range | 14 |
| From the 52-week high | -58.2% |
| Average daily volume | $53.0M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Enterprise AI platform with DoD contracts; predictive maintenance, supply chain optimization, and sensor fusion for military applications.
Standing judgment
C3.ai's defense positioning is a pivot undertaken from a contracting commercial base rather than a position it built in the value chain, and the thesis loses nothing if the company disappears. Down 58% from its high with a 46% revenue decline, a 35% headcount cut and leadership turnover. Federal bookings growth is the one genuine positive and it is off a shrinking base.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 38 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Revenue fell 46% and full year revenue contracted to $250.3M from $389.1M while the company cut a third of its staff and changed chief executives, so the defense pivot is being attempted from a position of financial and organisational instability. | FY2026 revenue $250.3M versus $389.1M prior year; Q3 FY2026 revenue $53.26M versus $98.78M a year earlier, a 46% decline. Q4 restructuring plan targets roughly $135M of annualised non-GAAP cost savings with headcount cut about 35%, from over 1,000 to roughly 700. Federal bookings up 134% year over y |
| 2026-08-05 | 38 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Revenue fell 46% and full year revenue contracted to $250.3M from $389.1M while the company cut a third of its staff and changed chief executives, so the defense pivot is being attempted from a position of financial and organisational instability. | FY2026 revenue $250.3M versus $389.1M prior year; Q3 FY2026 revenue $53.26M versus $98.78M a year earlier, a 46% decline. Q4 restructuring plan targets roughly $135M of annualised non-GAAP cost savings with headcount cut about 35%, from over 1,000 to roughly 700. Federal bookings up 134% year over y |
| 2026-08-05 | 38 | +31 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Revenue fell 46% and full year revenue contracted to $250.3M from $389.1M while the company cut a third of its staff and changed chief executives, so the defense pivot is being attempted from a position of financial and organisational instability. | FY2026 revenue $250.3M versus $389.1M prior year; Q3 FY2026 revenue $53.26M versus $98.78M a year earlier, a 46% decline. Q4 restructuring plan targets roughly $135M of annualised non-GAAP cost savings with headcount cut about 35%, from over 1,000 to roughly 700. Federal bookings up 134% year over y |
| 2026-07-29 | 7 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 11 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 4 | -10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 14 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 14 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 7 | -13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 20 | +16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 4 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 4 | -10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 14 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 23 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 14 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |