Conviction / Uncrewed Platforms
ACHR
Archer Aviation
conviction
Archer is building an electric air taxi and has signed Air Force agreements worth up to $142 million, plus a partnership with Anduril on an autonomous helicopter that will not fly until 2027. It is still losing more than $200 million a quarter with almost no revenue, and the military work is a small fraction of what the company spends.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $5.18 |
| 30-day move | +5.0% |
| Position in 52-week range | 8 |
| From the 52-week high | -64.6% |
| Average daily volume | $171.9M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
eVTOL dual-use platform with Stellantis defense JV; Midnight aircraft targeting military logistics and medevac.
Standing judgment
Archer is an urban air mobility company with a defense option attached, not an uncrewed autonomous platform supplier, and the thesis that attritable autonomous mass wins does not depend on it in any way. Down 64.3 percent from the high to $5.215 and still carrying a $3.62B market cap on essentially no commercial revenue and a $206M quarterly net loss. The Anduril partnership and the Thunder autonomous rotorcraft unveiled at Farnborough in July 2026 are the only genuine autonomy content, and Thunder does not fly until 2027 with no disclosed financial terms.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 44 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The defense narrative is real but almost entirely unfunded ceiling value and a partnership with undisclosed terms whose first flight is more than a year away, against a valuation that still requires the commercial air taxi business to work. | US Air Force contracts with a total value of up to $142M, which is ceiling rather than funded value. Anduril partnership announced with Thunder autonomous rotorcraft unveiled 2026-07-20 at Farnborough; no financial terms, aircraft specifications, or delivery timelines disclosed, first flight schedul |
| 2026-08-05 | 44 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The defense narrative is real but almost entirely unfunded ceiling value and a partnership with undisclosed terms whose first flight is more than a year away, against a valuation that still requires the commercial air taxi business to work. | US Air Force contracts with a total value of up to $142M, which is ceiling rather than funded value. Anduril partnership announced with Thunder autonomous rotorcraft unveiled 2026-07-20 at Farnborough; no financial terms, aircraft specifications, or delivery timelines disclosed, first flight schedul |
| 2026-08-05 | 44 | +40 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The defense narrative is real but almost entirely unfunded ceiling value and a partnership with undisclosed terms whose first flight is more than a year away, against a valuation that still requires the commercial air taxi business to work. | US Air Force contracts with a total value of up to $142M, which is ceiling rather than funded value. Anduril partnership announced with Thunder autonomous rotorcraft unveiled 2026-07-20 at Farnborough; no financial terms, aircraft specifications, or delivery timelines disclosed, first flight schedul |
| 2026-07-29 | 4 | -29 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 33 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 36 | +19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 17 | +13 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-08 | 4 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-07 | 11 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-21 | 4 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-20 | 7 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 1 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-19 | 4 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 4 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-06-12 | 7 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |